Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Spencer TorkelsonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Drew AndersonPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Blue Jays- Brett BatemanBatting2-4
- Michael LorenzenPitching2.0 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Clark singled to center, Malgeri scored, Valencia to third.10–1
- 9Lee homered to left (408 feet).9–1
- 8Kirk singled to center, Bateman scored, Springer to second.8–1
- 8Clark to home on throwing error by catcher Kirk and Torkelson to home on error.8–0
- 8Clark to home on throwing error by catcher Kirk and Torkelson to home on error.8–0
- 8Clark to home on throwing error by catcher Kirk and Torkelson to home on error.8–0
- 6Peck singled to right, Torkelson scored, Peck out stretching at second.6–0
- 5Greene singled to right, McGonigle scored, Lee to third.5–0
- 4Torkelson homered to left center (379 feet), Valencia scored and Clark scored.4–0
- 4Clark doubled to left, Greene scored, Valencia to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 55%
- ML DET +115 / TOR -138
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.2 pts
- TOR: Elo 55.3%, market 55.5%
- Fair odds
- TOR -125
- DET +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.8 – 4.2 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +14 | DET: Drew Anderson: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · TOR: Braydon Fisher: team allows 0.72 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +37 Elo | TOR 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 55.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.130th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.310th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3032–43 | Road vs home | 39–3718th of 30 |
| 27th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 15055th of 30 |
| 11th of 301510 | Elo rating | 151310th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 74–76 | 78–73 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 34–50 | 31–48 |
| Underdog | 40–26 | 47–25 |
| Overs–unders | 65–77–8 | 76–70–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 12–12 TOR in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 24.