Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Max ClarkBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Troy MeltonPitching2.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Blue Jays- Kazuma OkamotoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jose SorianoPitching6.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9McKinstry scored on error, Lee safe at first on error by pitcher Varland.6–5
- 8Callahan singled to left, McGonigle scored, Greene to second.5–5
- 7Okamoto homered to left (390 feet), Springer scored and Kirk scored.4–5
- 7Torkelson doubled to left, Clark scored.4–2
- 7Clark doubled to left, Dingler scored and Greene scored.3–2
- 7Dingler singled to left, Torres scored, Greene to second.1–2
- 1Springer scored on Melton wild pitch, Kirk to second.0–2
- 1Springer scored on Melton wild pitch, Kirk to second on wild pitch by Melton.0–2
- 1Kirk singled to left, Bateman scored, Springer to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 57%
- ML DET +123 / TOR -149
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.6 pts
- TOR: Elo 52.6%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- TOR -133
- DET +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.4 – 4.1 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −2 | DET: Troy Melton: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TOR: Jose Soriano: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +18 Elo | TOR 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 54.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.130th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.310th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3031–43 | Road vs home | 39–3616th of 30 |
| 27th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 15044th of 30 |
| 11th of 301509 | Elo rating | 151410th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 73–76 | 78–72 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 34–50 | 31–47 |
| Underdog | 39–26 | 47–25 |
| Overs–unders | 64–77–8 | 75–70–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 11–12 TOR in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 23.