Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Davis SchneiderBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jose SorianoPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 8 K
Rangers- Josh JungBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jordan MontgomeryPitching3.2 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 7Schneider homered to left center (392 feet).2–6
- 6Carter hit sacrifice fly to center, Langford scored.1–6
- 6Jansen hit by pitch, Nimmo scored, Lopez to second, Langford to third.1–5
- 6Langford doubled to left, Jung scored, Nimmo to third.1–4
- 6Kirk singled to center, Giménez scored, Bateman to second.1–3
- 2Lopez scored on Soriano wild pitch, Jansen to second on wild pitch by Soriano.0–3
- 2Lopez scored on Soriano wild pitch, Jansen to second on wild pitch by Soriano.0–3
- 2Jansen grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Langford scored, Lopez safe at second on throwing error by shortstop Giménez, Lopez safe at third on error.0–2
- 1Jung homered to right (356 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 51%
- ML TOR -106 / TEX -114
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- TEX: Elo 51.8%, market 50.9%
- Fair odds
- TEX -104
- TOR +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.7 – 3.8 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +1 | TOR: Jose Soriano: team allows 0.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Cal Quantrill: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +12 Elo | TEX 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 50.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.225th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.413th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 16th of 3036–40 | Road vs home | 43–3310th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 149329th of 30 |
| 11th of 301509 | Elo rating | 149516th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 79–75 | 71–83 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 32–50 | 30–53 |
| Underdog | 47–25 | 41–30 |
| Overs–unders | 78–71–5 | 77–66–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 9–15 TEX in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 24.