Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Andres GimenezBatting2-4
- Max ScherzerPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Orioles- Pete AlonsoBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 6Okamoto scored on error and Springer scored on error, Valenzuela safe at first on throwing error by second baseman Jackson.2–4
- 5Alonso homered to left center (412 feet), Beavers scored.0–4
- 2Cowser scored, Jackson caught stealing second, catcher to shortstop to first to second.0–2
- 2Cowser scored, Jackson caught stealing second, catcher to shortstop to first to second.0–2
- 2Jackson singled to center, Encarnacion-Strand scored, Cowser to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 54%
- ML TOR +106 / BAL -127
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- BAL: Elo 50.7%, market 53.5%
- Fair odds
- BAL -115
- TOR +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.3 – 3.7 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −2 | TOR: Max Scherzer: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +5 Elo | BAL 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 53.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.417th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.621st of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 18th of 3037–42 | Road vs home | 37–4226th of 30 |
| 7th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 15038th of 30 |
| 11th of 301508 | Elo rating | 149318th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 81–76 | 79–78 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 32–50 | 34–45 |
| Underdog | 49–26 | 45–33 |
| Overs–unders | 80–72–5 | 77–75–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 22–28 BAL in their last 50 meetings; the forecast called 29 of 50.