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Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees, MLB forecast

FinalNYY win series 2-0

Away

Red Sox

87-75

2–9

at

Home

Yankees

93-68

BOS 45%NYY 55%

You didn't pick this one.

Yankee Stadium · NBC

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.

NYY75%50%75%BOSStart1234567Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Red Sox
  • Willson ContrerasBatting2-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
  • Sonny GrayPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Yankees
  • Cody BellingerBatting2-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
  • Max FriedPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K

Scoring summary

  • 7Wells singled to center, Chisholm Jr. scored, Grisham to third.2–9
  • 7Sogard homered to right (362 feet).2–8
  • 6Bellinger homered to right center (360 feet), Grisham scored and Rice scored.1–8
  • 6McMahon grounded out to third, Chisholm Jr. scored, Grisham to second.1–5
  • 6Wells hit sacrifice fly to left, Lombard Jr. scored, Chisholm Jr. to third.1–4
  • 6Lombard Jr. singled to center, Jones scored.1–3
  • 6Contreras homered to right center (387 feet). Umpire review: call on the field was upheld.1–2
  • 5Bellinger singled to right, Wells scored, Rice to second.0–2
  • 4García Jr. homered to right center (387 feet).0–1

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Yankees 55%

LeanHit
BOS 45%NYY 55%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.

Market
NYY 55%
ML BOS +113 / NYY -137
Pre-line forecast
NYY 54%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
NYY 53%
Ratings vs. market
−2.3 pts
NYY: Elo 52.8%, market 55.2%
Fair odds
NYY -123
BOS +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
BOS 3.3 – 3.7 NYY
Margin from the forecast, posted total 7

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorBOSNYYWhy
Team rating15311554Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers+25+4BOS: Sonny Gray: team allows 1.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Max Fried: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsNYY +20 EloNYY 52.8%
Market-implied ratingsNYY 54.5%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastNYY 54.2%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastNYY 55.2%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.

Try another venue →
Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees compared, with each team's league rank
BOSStatNYY
23rd of 304.3Runs scored4.68th of 30
3rd of 303.8Runs allowed3.72nd of 30
7th of 30+0.5Margin+0.94th of 30
12th of 305–5Last 105–512th of 30
4th of 3046–35Road vs home46–348th of 30
12th of 301501Opponent Elo149918th of 30
7th of 301531Elo rating15543rd of 30

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

Red SoxYankees
1450150015501600league averageAprJulOctJanAprJulOct

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonBOSNYY
Run line79–8490–72
Last 104–66–4
Favorite44–6263–62
Underdog35–2227–10
Overs–unders73–86–476–80–6
Overs–unders, last 103–79–1

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

BOS 31–25 NYY in their last 56 meetings; the forecast called 28 of 56.