Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Adley RutschmanBatting1-4
- Payton TollePitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Yankees- Ben RiceBatting4-5, 2 HR, 6 RBI
- Cam SchlittlerPitching6.1 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 8Rice homered to center (408 feet), McMahon, Jones, and Goldschmidt scored.0–9
- 8Wells hit sacrifice fly to right, Lombard Jr. scored.0–5
- 7García Jr. grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Wells scored, Rice out at second, Goldschmidt to third.0–4
- 7Rice singled to right, Jones scored, Goldschmidt to second, Wells to third.0–3
- 5Rice homered to center (423 feet).0–2
- 2Wells singled to right, Lombard Jr. scored, Volpe to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 54%
- ML BOS +109 / NYY -131
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- NYY: Elo 53.9%, market 54.2%
- Fair odds
- NYY -119
- BOS +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 2.8 – 3.2 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1550 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | +7 | BOS: Payton Tolle: team allows 0.67 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Cam Schlittler: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +27 Elo | NYY 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 56.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 55.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 54.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.68th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 3.72nd of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.94th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 4th of 3046–35 | Road vs home | 46–348th of 30 |
| 13th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149918th of 30 |
| 7th of 301535 | Elo rating | 15503rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 79–83 | 89–72 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 44–62 | 62–62 |
| Underdog | 35–21 | 27–10 |
| Overs–unders | 72–86–4 | 75–80–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 31–24 NYY in their last 55 meetings; the forecast called 27 of 55.