Cleveland Guardians at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Steven KwanBatting2-5
- Parker MessickPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Rays- Liam HicksBatting2-3, 2 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7DeLauter doubled to right, Bailey scored, Kwan to third.1–3
- 4Hicks singled to center, Simpson scored and Williamson scored.0–3
- 4Mesa Jr. scored on fielding error by third baseman Ramírez, Williamson safe at second, Simpson safe at third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TB 55%
- ML CLE +117 / TB -131
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- TB: Elo 55.1%, market 55.2%
- Fair odds
- TB -123
- CLE +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.0 – 3.5 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +3 | CLE: Parker Messick: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +36 Elo | TB 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 55.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.512th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.06th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.56th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 6th of 3044–37 | Road vs home | 55–262nd of 30 |
| 26th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 10th of 301517 | Elo rating | 15395th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 85–83 | 90–76 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 33–61 | 52–49 |
| Underdog | 52–22 | 38–27 |
| Overs–unders | 81–85–2 | 77–83–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–2–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 13–14 TB in their last 27 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 27.