Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Parker MessickPitching2.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
White Sox- Miguel VargasBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Erick FeddePitching3.2 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Vargas homered to left (386 feet).9–5
- 6Adell singled to right, Kwan scored and Ramírez scored, DeLauter to second.9–4
- 6DeLauter singled to right, Rocchio scored, Ramírez to second, Kwan to third.7–4
- 6Ramírez reached on infield single to second, Bailey scored, Kwan to second, Rocchio to third.6–4
- 6Bailey singled to left, Bazzana scored.5–4
- 6Bazzana doubled to right, Martínez scored.4–4
- 5Doyle hit sacrifice fly to right, Vargas scored.3–4
- 5Antonacci hit by pitch, Meidroth scored, Murakami to second, Vargas to third.3–3
- 5Ramírez homered to right center (378 feet), Kwan scored.3–2
- 5Bailey homered to right (376 feet).1–2
- 3Antonacci hit sacrifice fly to right, Meidroth scored.0–2
- 3Murakami walked, C. Montgomery scored, Vargas to second, Meidroth to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 52%
- ML CLE -118 / CHW -102
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.1 pts
- CLE: Elo 47.7%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- CLE -107
- CHW +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.6 – 3.4 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +15 | CLE: Parker Messick: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Hagen Smith: team allows 0.75 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHW +16 Elo | CHW 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 50.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.85th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.39th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 6th of 3044–37 | Road vs home | 48–336th of 30 |
| 26th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 149723rd of 30 |
| 11th of 301510 | Elo rating | 150314th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 82–83 | 91–76 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 32–61 | 22–35 |
| Underdog | 50–22 | 69–41 |
| Overs–unders | 79–84–2 | 96–69–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 31–24 CHW in their last 55 meetings; the forecast called 33 of 55.
- Oct 7CLE 9 @ CHW 3PlayoffsPicked CHW 54%Miss
- Oct 5CHW 4 @ CLE 3PlayoffsPicked CLE 58%Miss
- Oct 3CHW 3 @ CLE 0PlayoffsPicked CLE 57%Miss
- Sep 16CHW 3 @ CLE 6Picked CLE 60%Hit
- Sep 15CHW 6 @ CLE 7Picked CLE 59%Hit
- Sep 14CHW 7 @ CLE 3Picked CLE 62%Miss
- Aug 9CLE 3 @ CHW 5Picked CLE 55%Miss
- Aug 8CLE 3 @ CHW 6Picked CLE 54%Miss