Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Patrick BaileyBatting2-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Tanner BibeePitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Royals- Jac CaglianoneBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Michael WachaPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Lowe singled to left, Adell scored and Ramírez scored, Genao to second.11–5
- 9Rocchio homered to right (373 feet).9–5
- 9Bailey homered to right (380 feet).8–5
- 8Pasquantino singled to left, Caglianone scored.7–5
- 8Caglianone doubled to right, Witt Jr. scored.7–4
- 7Rocchio homered to left (354 feet).7–3
- 6Lowe hit sacrifice fly to center, Bazzana scored.6–3
- 3DeLauter homered to right center (400 feet).5–3
- 2Kwan tripled to left, Rocchio scored.4–3
- 2Bailey homered to right (342 feet), Bazzana scored. Umpire review: call on the field was upheld.3–3
- 2Lowe hit sacrifice fly to right, Adell scored, Bazzana to third.1–3
- 1Massey singled to right, Caglianone scored.0–3
- 1Caglianone doubled to right, Witt Jr. scored.0–2
- 1Jensen scored on throwing error by catcher Bailey, Witt Jr. stole third.0–1
- 1Jensen scored on throwing error by catcher Bailey, Witt Jr. stole third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 50%
- ML CLE -112 / KC -108
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.4 pts
- CLE: Elo 50.8%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- CLE -102
- KC +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.3 – 4.2 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1467 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +13 | CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Michael Wacha: team allows 0.64 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +6 Elo | CLE 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 51.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.323rd of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.026th of 30 |
| 14th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.727th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 6th of 3043–36 | Road vs home | 40–3919th of 30 |
| 26th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 149820th of 30 |
| 11th of 301509 | Elo rating | 146726th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 79–81 | 82–78 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 32–59 | 22–33 |
| Underdog | 47–22 | 60–45 |
| Overs–unders | 76–82–2 | 72–82–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 26–24 KC in their last 50 meetings; the forecast called 28 of 50.