Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Chase MeidrothBatting3-4, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Anthony KayPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Royals- Vinnie PasquantinoBatting3-5, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Daniel Lynch IVPitching4.0 IP, 9 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Pasquantino homered to right center (412 feet), Tolbert scored, Caglianone scored and Garcia scored.14–11
- 8Massey hit a ground rule double, Pasquantino scored.14–7
- 8Rojas hit sacrifice fly to left, Garcia scored.14–6
- 8Pasquantino doubled to right, Caglianone scored, Garcia to third. Chicago White Sox challenged: call on the field was upheld.14–5
- 7Benintendi singled to center, B. Montgomery scored and Doyle scored, Vargas to third.14–4
- 7Vargas walked, Meidroth scored, B. Montgomery to second, Doyle to third.12–4
- 7Murakami homered to right (373 feet), Grichuk scored.11–4
- 5Garcia grounded out to second, Jensen scored, Witt Jr. to second.9–4
- 4Loftin grounded out to second, Pasquantino scored, Perez to third.9–3
- 4Perez singled to left, Garcia scored, Pasquantino to second.9–2
- 4Grichuk homered to center (415 feet), Vargas scored and Pham scored.9–1
- 3Loftin homered to left (384 feet).6–1
- 3Meidroth homered to left center (410 feet), Grichuk scored and Murakami scored.6–0
- 2Doyle homered to center (414 feet).3–0
- 1Meidroth singled to left, Grichuk scored and Pham scored, Murakami to second.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
White Sox 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHW 53%
- ML CHW -125 / KC +104
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- CHW: Elo 50.0%, market 53.1%
- Fair odds
- CHW -113
- KC +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.1 – 3.9 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −2 | CHW: Anthony Kay: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Daniel Lynch IV: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHW 0 Elo | CHW 50.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHW 53.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.224th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.925th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.727th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 20th of 3034–44 | Road vs home | 39–3615th of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149823rd of 30 |
| 17th of 301493 | Elo rating | 147423rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 83–73 | 81–75 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 18–32 | 22–33 |
| Underdog | 65–41 | 59–42 |
| Overs–unders | 88–66–2 | 68–82–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 17–32 KC in their last 49 meetings; the forecast called 35 of 49.