Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Kevin McGonigleBatting2-4
- Framber ValdezPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
White Sox- Munetaka MurakamiBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Erick FeddePitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 3Torres grounded into fielder's choice to third, Clark scored, McGonigle to second, Peck out at third.1–3
- 1Murakami homered to center (423 feet), Meidroth scored and Grichuk scored.0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
White Sox 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHW 51%
- ML DET -104 / CHW -116
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.1 pts
- CHW: Elo 51.4%, market 51.3%
- Fair odds
- CHW -105
- DET +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.2 – 4.3 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +9 | DET: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Erick Fedde: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHW +10 Elo | CHW 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 50.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHW 51.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.77th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.517th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.29th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3033–44 | Road vs home | 43–316th of 30 |
| 27th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 150013th of 30 |
| 11th of 301512 | Elo rating | 148920th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 75–77 | 80–72 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 34–50 | 15–31 |
| Underdog | 41–27 | 65–41 |
| Overs–unders | 66–78–8 | 86–64–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–3–2 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 29–19 CHW in their last 48 meetings; the forecast called 31 of 48.