Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Eduardo ValenciaBatting3-4
- Troy MeltonPitching3.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
White Sox- Chase MeidrothBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Davis MartinPitching4.1 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Grichuk hit sacrifice fly to center, Teel scored.1–8
- 8Murakami walked, Peters scored, Vargas to second, Teel to third.1–7
- 8Clark hit sacrifice fly to center, Greene scored.1–6
- 5Meidroth homered to left (367 feet), C. Montgomery scored.0–6
- 4Teel singled to right, Antonacci scored.0–4
- 4Antonacci doubled to right, C. Montgomery scored and Doyle scored.0–3
- 2B. Montgomery doubled to right, Meidroth scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
White Sox 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHW 52%
- ML DET -101 / CHW -120
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.1 pts
- CHW: Elo 48.0%, market 52.1%
- Fair odds
- CHW -109
- DET +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.9 – 4.1 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −9 | DET: Troy Melton: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CHW: Davis Martin: team allows 0.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +14 Elo | DET 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHW 52.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.77th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.516th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.210th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–616th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3034–46 | Road vs home | 45–326th of 30 |
| 25th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 150014th of 30 |
| 10th of 301510 | Elo rating | 149020th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 76–79 | 82–73 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 34–50 | 17–32 |
| Underdog | 42–29 | 65–41 |
| Overs–unders | 67–80–8 | 87–66–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–3–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 30–21 CHW in their last 51 meetings; the forecast called 33 of 51.