Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Kevin McGonigleBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Jackson JobePitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
White Sox- Miguel VargasBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sean BurkePitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Vargas homered to left center (390 feet).1–3
- 5Antonacci hit sacrifice fly to left, B. Montgomery scored.1–2
- 5McGonigle hit sacrifice fly to left, Malgeri scored.1–1
- 1Murakami singled to left, Vargas scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
White Sox 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHW 55%
- ML DET +113 / CHW -136
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.8 pts
- CHW: Elo 49.3%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- CHW -123
- DET +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.8 – 4.2 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +4 | DET: Jackson Jobe: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CHW: Sean Burke: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +5 Elo | DET 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 57.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 56.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHW 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.76th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.517th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.210th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3034–45 | Road vs home | 44–326th of 30 |
| 26th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 150014th of 30 |
| 10th of 301512 | Elo rating | 148821st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 76–78 | 81–73 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 34–50 | 16–32 |
| Underdog | 42–28 | 65–41 |
| Overs–unders | 67–79–8 | 87–65–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–3–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 30–20 CHW in their last 50 meetings; the forecast called 32 of 50.