Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Hao-Yu LeeBatting4-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Beau BrieskePitching2.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
White Sox- Miguel VargasBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- David SandlinPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Greene homered to right center (413 feet), Dingler scored.11–8
- 8Dingler singled to right, McGonigle scored.9–8
- 8Lee homered to right (362 feet), Valencia scored.8–8
- 6Lee doubled to center, Clark scored.6–8
- 5McGonigle tripled to center, Clark scored, Valencia scored and Lee scored.5–8
- 3Vargas homered to left (403 feet), Doyle scored.2–8
- 3McGonigle singled to left, Valencia scored.2–6
- 1Vargas doubled to left, C. Montgomery scored, Peters thrown out at home.1–6
- 1C. Montgomery doubled to right, Doyle scored, Meidroth scored and Teel scored.1–5
- 1Murakami scored, Doyle safe at first on fielding error by third baseman Lee, Teel to second, Meidroth to third.1–2
- 1Pham scored on Sears wild pitch, Meidroth to second on wild pitch by Sears, Murakami to third on wild pitch by Sears.1–1
- 1Pham scored on Sears wild pitch, Meidroth to second on wild pitch by Sears, Murakami to third on wild pitch by Sears.1–1
- 1Keith scored on Sandlin wild pitch.1–0
- 1Keith scored on Sandlin wild pitch.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
White Sox 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHW 54%
- ML DET +109 / CHW -132
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- CHW: Elo 51.4%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- CHW -119
- DET +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.8 – 4.2 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | 0 | DET: Andrew Sears: team allows 0.58 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · CHW: David Sandlin: team allows 0.00 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHW +10 Elo | CHW 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHW 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.77th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.29th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3033–45 | Road vs home | 44–316th of 30 |
| 26th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 150014th of 30 |
| 11th of 301510 | Elo rating | 149020th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 75–78 | 81–72 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 34–50 | 16–31 |
| Underdog | 41–28 | 65–41 |
| Overs–unders | 66–79–8 | 86–65–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–3–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 29–20 CHW in their last 49 meetings; the forecast called 32 of 49.