Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Kyle TeelBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Erick FeddePitching2.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Royals- Maikel GarciaBatting3-3, 3 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching3.1 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Garcia doubled to left, Witt Jr. scored.4–5
- 3Murakami doubled to right, Teel scored, Vargas to third.4–4
- 3Vargas singled to center, Antonacci scored, Teel to third.3–4
- 3Teel singled to left, B. Montgomery scored and Meidroth scored, Antonacci to second.2–4
- 1Massey reached on infield single to shortstop, Pasquantino scored on throwing error by shortstop C. Montgomery.0–4
- 1Pasquantino doubled to left, Garcia scored.0–3
- 1Garcia singled to right, Jensen scored and Witt Jr. scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
White Sox 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHW 52%
- ML CHW -122 / KC +101
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.1 pts
- CHW: Elo 54.6%, market 52.5%
- Fair odds
- CHW -110
- KC +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.4 – 4.1 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | −13 | CHW: Bryan Hudson: team allows 0.66 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · KC: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.67 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHW +32 Elo | CHW 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHW 52.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.925th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.727th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 20th of 3035–44 | Road vs home | 39–3716th of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149822nd of 30 |
| 17th of 301495 | Elo rating | 147224th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 84–73 | 81–76 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 19–32 | 22–33 |
| Underdog | 65–41 | 59–43 |
| Overs–unders | 89–66–2 | 69–82–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 18–32 KC in their last 50 meetings; the forecast called 36 of 50.