Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Kyle TeelBatting2-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- David SandlinPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Royals- Salvador PerezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jose CuasPitching2.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 5Benintendi walked, Antonacci scored, Murakami to second, Teel to third.9–1
- 4Perez homered to left center (419 feet).8–1
- 4Peters grounded into fielder's choice to first, Vargas scored, Benintendi out at second, Murakami to third.8–0
- 4Teel homered to center (424 feet).7–0
- 2Murakami grounded into fielder's choice to second, Teel scored, Vargas out at second.6–0
- 2Vargas singled to right, Antonacci scored, Teel to third.5–0
- 2B. Montgomery scored on pickoff error by pitcher Dobnak, Antonacci picked off third.4–0
- 2B. Montgomery scored on pickoff error by pitcher Dobnak, Antonacci picked off third.4–0
- 1Peters singled to center, Vargas scored.3–0
- 1Benintendi hit sacrifice fly to center, Teel scored.2–0
- 1Vargas singled to left, Antonacci scored, Teel to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
White Sox 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHW 56%
- ML CHW -142 / KC +118
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.8 pts
- CHW: Elo 47.3%, market 56.1%
- Fair odds
- CHW -128
- KC +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.5 – 4.0 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | +7 | CHW: David Sandlin: team allows 0.72 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · KC: Randy Dobnak: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +18 Elo | KC 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHW 56.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.323rd of 30 |
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.925th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.727th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 20th of 3035–45 | Road vs home | 40–3715th of 30 |
| 17th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149822nd of 30 |
| 18th of 301494 | Elo rating | 147324th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 84–74 | 82–76 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 19–33 | 22–33 |
| Underdog | 65–41 | 60–43 |
| Overs–unders | 90–66–2 | 70–82–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 18–33 KC in their last 51 meetings; the forecast called 36 of 51.