Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Angel MartinezBatting2-5, 4 RBI
- Gavin WilliamsPitching3.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Royals- Carter JensenBatting2-4, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Noah CameronPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Perez homered to left (434 feet), Garcia scored.12–9
- 9Martínez doubled to left, Ramírez scored and DeLauter scored, Halpin thrown out at home.12–7
- 9Halpin walked, Kwan scored, DeLauter to second, Ramírez to third.10–7
- 9DeLauter walked, Rocchio scored, Ramírez to second, Kwan to third.9–7
- 9Ramírez walked, Bailey scored, Kwan to second, Rocchio to third.8–7
- 8Jensen homered to right center (418 feet), Isbel scored.7–7
- 5Rocchio grounded out to shortstop, Bazzana scored, Hedges to third.7–5
- 5Fry homered to left (422 feet), Adell scored.6–5
- 4Caglianone singled to right, Witt Jr. scored.4–5
- 4Jensen hit sacrifice fly to center, Rave scored.4–4
- 4Ramírez hit sacrifice fly to right, Hedges scored, Rocchio to third.4–3
- 2Jensen homered to right (389 feet), Rave scored.3–3
- 2Hedges homered to left center (389 feet).3–1
- 1Caglianone doubled to left, Witt Jr. scored.2–1
- 1Martínez singled to left, Kwan scored and Ramírez scored, Adell to second.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 57%
- ML CLE -148 / KC +122
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- CLE: Elo 54.7%, market 57.0%
- Fair odds
- CLE -132
- KC +132 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.8 – 3.2 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −6 | CLE: Gavin Williams: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Noah Cameron: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +33 Elo | CLE 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 56.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 56.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 57.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.925th of 30 |
| 16th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.727th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 6th of 3042–36 | Road vs home | 40–3818th of 30 |
| 26th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 149821st of 30 |
| 11th of 301507 | Elo rating | 146926th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 78–81 | 82–77 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 31–59 | 22–33 |
| Underdog | 47–22 | 60–44 |
| Overs–unders | 75–82–2 | 71–82–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 25–24 KC in their last 49 meetings; the forecast called 27 of 49.