Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Jo AdellBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Austin PetersonPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Royals- Vinnie PasquantinoBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Daniel Lynch IVPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Pasquantino homered to right (378 feet).2–3
- 6Adell homered to left center (440 feet).2–2
- 5Pasquantino homered to center (434 feet).1–2
- 3Schneemann homered to right (380 feet).1–1
- 1Perez singled to left, Garcia scored, Caglianone to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- KC 50%
- ML CLE -109 / KC -111
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 39%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 42%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.2 pts
- KC: Elo 42.1%, market 50.2%
- Fair odds
- KC -101
- CLE +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.0 – 4.0 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1465 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | −15 | CLE: Parker Messick: team allows 0.61 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Daniel Lynch IV: team allows 0.73 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +56 Elo | CLE 57.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 61.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 60.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 50.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.322nd of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.026th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.827th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 5th of 3044–36 | Road vs home | 40–4020th of 30 |
| 26th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 30 |
| 11th of 301512 | Elo rating | 146527th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 80–81 | 82–79 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 32–59 | 22–34 |
| Underdog | 48–22 | 60–45 |
| Overs–unders | 77–82–2 | 73–82–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 27–24 KC in their last 51 meetings; the forecast called 29 of 51.