Chicago White Sox at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Colson MontgomeryBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Hagen SmithPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Astros- Nelson VelazquezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Miguel UllolaPitching3.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Peña scored, Altuve safe at first on throwing error by third baseman Vargas, Alvarez to second. Chicago White Sox challenged: call on the field was upheld.6–3
- 7Murakami scored on Sousa wild pitch, Grichuk to third.6–2
- 7Murakami scored on Sousa wild pitch, Grichuk to third on wild pitch by Sousa.6–2
- 5Velázquez homered to left (388 feet), Spence scored.5–2
- 5Meidroth reached on infield single to shortstop, Murakami scored, B. Montgomery to second, Peters to third.5–0
- 4C. Montgomery homered to center (432 feet).4–0
- 2Antonacci singled to left, B. Montgomery scored and Meidroth scored, C. Montgomery to second.3–0
- 1Murakami hit sacrifice fly to right, Antonacci scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 53%
- ML CHW +102 / HOU -123
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.3 pts
- HOU: Elo 52.4%, market 52.7%
- Fair odds
- HOU -111
- CHW +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.1 – 4.4 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +3 | CHW: Hagen Smith: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · HOU: AJ Blubaugh: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +17 Elo | HOU 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 52.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.724th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 20th of 3036–45 | Road vs home | 39–4221st of 30 |
| 22nd of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149030th of 30 |
| 18th of 301498 | Elo rating | 150016th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 87–75 | 84–78 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 22–34 | 33–45 |
| Underdog | 65–41 | 51–33 |
| Overs–unders | 92–68–2 | 79–72–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–3–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 10–16 HOU in their last 26 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 26.