Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Hunter GoodmanBatting2-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Ryan FeltnerPitching3.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
White Sox- Andrew BenintendiBatting1-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Noah SchultzPitching3.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Benintendi homered to right (394 feet), Peters scored and Vargas scored.9–6
- 9Goodman homered to left (351 feet), McCarthy scored and Carrigg scored.9–3
- 9Carrigg singled to right, Beck scored, McCarthy to third.6–3
- 7Grichuk grounded out to third, Vargas scored, Benintendi to second.5–3
- 4Tovar homered to left center (422 feet).5–2
- 3Acuña homered to center (406 feet).4–2
- 3Goodman homered to left (381 feet).4–1
- 2Doyle homered to left (367 feet).3–1
- 1Amador singled to right, Carrigg scored and Rumfield scored, Norby to second.3–0
- 1Rumfield singled to right, McCarthy scored, Carrigg to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
White Sox 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- CHW 69%
- ML COL +211 / CHW -262
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.3 pts
- CHW: Elo 65.0%, market 69.2%
- Fair odds
- CHW -225
- COL +225 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.1 – 4.9 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1397 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −4 | COL: Jose Quintana: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Davis Martin: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHW +107 Elo | CHW 65.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 63.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 63.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHW 69.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.85th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.2 | Margin | +0.49th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 30th of 3025–54 | Road vs home | 47–326th of 30 |
| 1st of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 30 |
| 30th of 301397 | Elo rating | 149916th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 81–79 | 86–74 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 5–5 | 21–33 |
| Underdog | 76–74 | 65–41 |
| Overs–unders | 75–78–7 | 91–67–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 4–6 CHW in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.