Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- TJ RumfieldBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tomoyuki SuganoPitching6.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
White Sox- Munetaka MurakamiBatting3-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Sean BurkePitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Murakami singled to right, Antonacci scored, Teel to second.1–6
- 8Teel singled to center, B. Montgomery scored, Antonacci to third.1–5
- 7Murakami homered to left center (412 feet).1–4
- 3Teel hit sacrifice fly to center, B. Montgomery scored.1–3
- 2Rumfield homered to right (360 feet).1–2
- 1Murakami homered to right (386 feet).0–2
- 1Vargas hit sacrifice fly to center, Teel scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
White Sox 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- CHW 68%
- ML COL +200 / CHW -247
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.0 pts
- CHW: Elo 66.1%, market 68.1%
- Fair odds
- CHW -214
- COL +214 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.2 – 4.8 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1399 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +9 | COL: Tomoyuki Sugano: team allows 0.49 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Sean Burke: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHW +116 Elo | CHW 66.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 66.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 66.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHW 68.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.85th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 4.516th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.2 | Margin | +0.39th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 30th of 3025–53 | Road vs home | 46–326th of 30 |
| 1st of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 149918th of 30 |
| 30th of 301399 | Elo rating | 149817th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 81–78 | 85–74 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 5–5 | 20–33 |
| Underdog | 76–73 | 65–41 |
| Overs–unders | 75–77–7 | 91–66–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 4–5 CHW in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.