Houston Astros at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Lucas SpenceBatting3-4, 3 HR, 5 RBI
- Miguel UllolaPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Athletics- Zack GelofBatting2-3, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Mason BarnettPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Spence homered to right (351 feet).7–5
- 8Gelof homered to left center (398 feet).6–5
- 8Walker homered to left center (436 feet).6–4
- 7Spence homered to right center (387 feet).5–4
- 6Paredes homered to left (394 feet).4–4
- 3Gelof homered to center (413 feet).3–4
- 3McNeil homered to right center (379 feet), Heim scored and Langeliers scored.3–3
- 2Spence homered to right center (429 feet), Walker scored and Smith scored.3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 61%
- ML HOU -180 / ATH +148
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.9 pts
- HOU: Elo 55.6%, market 61.5%
- Fair odds
- HOU -159
- ATH +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 6.0 – 5.0 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1432 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −3 | HOU: Peter Lambert: team allows 0.34 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: Mason Barnett: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +39 Elo | HOU 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 62.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 61.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 61.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.320th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 5.729th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.3 | Margin | −1.430th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 11th of 3039–38 | Road vs home | 31–4629th of 30 |
| 30th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 149624th of 30 |
| 19th of 301493 | Elo rating | 143229th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 81–77 | 77–81 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 30–44 | 12–28 |
| Underdog | 51–33 | 65–53 |
| Overs–unders | 76–71–11 | 81–70–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–5–2 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 27–21 ATH in their last 48 meetings; the forecast called 29 of 48.