Los Angeles Angels at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Denzer GuzmanBatting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Yusei KikuchiPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Athletics- Carlos CortesBatting2-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Seth JohnsonPitching2.2 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Moore reached on infield single to shortstop, Siri scored, Meckler to second.7–9
- 8Gelof homered to left (411 feet), Butler scored.6–9
- 8Cortes homered to right center (386 feet), Williams scored.6–7
- 7McNeil walked, Bolte scored, Gelof to second, Langeliers to third.6–5
- 7Langeliers singled to left, Cortes scored, Bolte to second.6–4
- 7Cortes tripled to right, Williams scored.6–3
- 6McNeil grounded into fielder's choice to first, Butler scored on error, Gelof safe at second on throwing error by first baseman Grissom.6–2
- 6Butler tripled to center, Langeliers scored.6–1
- 6Grissom singled to left, Neto scored.6–0
- 3Guzman homered to left center (399 feet), Trout scored and Grissom scored.5–0
- 3Grissom singled to left, Neto scored, Trout to second.2–0
- 1Guzman grounded out to shortstop, Trout scored, Grissom to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Athletics 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATH 50%
- ML LAA -108 / ATH -112
- Pre-line forecast
- ATH 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATH 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.7 pts
- ATH: Elo 55.2%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- ATH -102
- LAA +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.7 – 4.8 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1443 | 1428 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | +21 | LAA: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 0.59 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: Brady Basso: team allows 1.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATH +36 Elo | ATH 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATH 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.321st of 30 |
| 19th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 5.729th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −1.430th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 27th of 3026–49 | Road vs home | 29–4630th of 30 |
| 20th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149823rd of 30 |
| 28th of 301443 | Elo rating | 142829th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 73–83 | 75–81 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 9–29 | 11–28 |
| Underdog | 64–54 | 64–53 |
| Overs–unders | 65–87–4 | 79–70–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 26–24 ATH in their last 50 meetings; the forecast called 25 of 50.