Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Yainer DiazBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Ethan PeckoPitching2.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Mariners- Dominic CanzoneBatting2-5, 3 RBI
- George KirbyPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 10Naylor singled to center, Arozarena scored, Rodríguez to second, Raleigh to third.5–6
- 10Rodríguez walked, Crawford scored, Raleigh to second, Arozarena to third.5–5
- 10Diaz tripled to right, Alvarez scored.5–4
- 5Canzone singled to center, Arozarena scored.4–4
- 3Rodríguez doubled to left, Arozarena scored, Canzone to third.4–3
- 3Canzone singled to right, Crawford scored and Montes scored, Arozarena to third.4–2
- 3Diaz homered to left (358 feet), Alvarez scored.4–0
- 3Paredes hit sacrifice fly to right, Altuve scored, Alvarez to third.2–0
- 3Altuve singled to left, Allen scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 54%
- ML HOU +108 / SEA -130
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- SEA: Elo 50.8%, market 54.0%
- Fair odds
- SEA -118
- HOU +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 3.6 – 3.9 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +1 | HOU: Ethan Pecko: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +6 Elo | SEA 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 54.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.028th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.423rd of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 10th of 3039–37 | Road vs home | 40–3614th of 30 |
| 30th of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 149527th of 30 |
| 18th of 301494 | Elo rating | 148422nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 80–77 | 61–96 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 30–44 | 36–73 |
| Underdog | 50–33 | 25–23 |
| Overs–unders | 75–71–11 | 80–67–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–6–2 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 17–34 SEA in their last 51 meetings; the forecast called 22 of 51.