Los Angeles Angels at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Vaughn GrissomBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Walbert UrenaPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Athletics- Donovan WaltonBatting1-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jeffrey SpringsPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6Langeliers doubled to right, Bolte scored and Williams scored.3–7
- 5Grissom reached on infield single to shortstop, Heineman scored, Neto to third.3–5
- 4Grissom homered to right center (386 feet).2–5
- 4Trout homered to left (393 feet).1–5
- 2Bolte doubled to right, Williams scored.0–5
- 1Walton homered to right (332 feet), McNeil scored and Gelof scored.0–4
- 1Butler singled to left, Bolte scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Angels 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAA 56%
- ML LAA -142 / ATH +118
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.0 pts
- LAA: Elo 54.2%, market 56.1%
- Fair odds
- LAA -128
- ATH +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.8 – 4.2 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1441 | 1429 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −25 | LAA: Walbert Urena: team allows 0.50 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ATH: Jeffrey Springs: team allows 1.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +29 Elo | LAA 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAA 56.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.320th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 5.729th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −1.430th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 29th of 3026–50 | Road vs home | 30–4630th of 30 |
| 21st of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149724th of 30 |
| 28th of 301441 | Elo rating | 142929th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 73–84 | 76–81 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 9–29 | 12–28 |
| Underdog | 64–55 | 64–53 |
| Overs–unders | 66–87–4 | 80–70–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–2–1 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 26–25 ATH in their last 51 meetings; the forecast called 26 of 51.