Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Cole CarriggBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kyle FreelandPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
White Sox- Randal GrichukBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Anthony KayPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Carrigg homered to right (360 feet).2–4
- 3Doyle homered to left (345 feet), Murakami scored.1–4
- 3Grichuk homered to left (408 feet), Acuña scored.1–2
- 3Norby hit sacrifice fly to left, Beck scored, Tovar to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
White Sox 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHW 59%
- ML COL +135 / CHW -163
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.4 pts
- CHW: Elo 64.7%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- CHW -146
- COL +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.8 – 4.7 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1400 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −12 | COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Anthony Kay: team allows 0.59 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHW +105 Elo | CHW 64.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 64.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 64.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHW 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.85th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 4.515th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.2 | Margin | +0.39th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 30th of 3026–54 | Road vs home | 47–336th of 30 |
| 1st of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 149820th of 30 |
| 30th of 301400 | Elo rating | 149618th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 82–79 | 86–75 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–5 | 21–34 |
| Underdog | 77–74 | 65–41 |
| Overs–unders | 76–78–7 | 92–67–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 5–6 CHW in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.