Houston Astros at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Christian WalkerBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Hunter BrownPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Athletics- Henry BolteBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Jacob LopezPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Paredes scored on Medina wild pitch, Walker to second on wild pitch by Medina, Diaz to third on wild pitch by Medina.5–6
- 8Paredes scored on Medina wild pitch, Walker to second on wild pitch by Medina, Diaz to third on wild pitch by Medina.5–6
- 8Diaz singled to left, Alvarez scored, Paredes to second.4–6
- 8Altuve hit sacrifice fly to left, Wade Jr. scored.3–6
- 7Smith homered to left (366 feet).2–6
- 6Butler grounded into fielder's choice to first, Bolte scored.1–6
- 6Bolte tripled to center, White scored and Heim scored.1–5
- 6Heim singled to left, Clarke scored, White to second.1–3
- 6Stefanic singled to center, McNeil scored and Gelof scored.1–2
- 4Walker homered to left (425 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 64%
- ML HOU -203 / ATH +166
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.5 pts
- HOU: Elo 57.6%, market 64.1%
- Fair odds
- HOU -178
- ATH +178 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 5.4 – 4.1 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1431 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +1 | HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: Jacob Lopez: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +53 Elo | HOU 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 62.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 61.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 64.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.320th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 5.729th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.3 | Margin | −1.430th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 9th of 3040–38 | Road vs home | 31–4729th of 30 |
| 30th of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 149624th of 30 |
| 19th of 301495 | Elo rating | 143129th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 82–77 | 77–82 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 31–44 | 12–28 |
| Underdog | 51–33 | 65–54 |
| Overs–unders | 77–71–11 | 82–70–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4–2 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 28–21 ATH in their last 49 meetings; the forecast called 30 of 49.