Houston Astros at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Jeremy PenaBatting4-6, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Hayden WesneskiPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Athletics- Zack GelofBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Jack PerkinsPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9Spence homered to right (380 feet).13–2
- 8Altuve singled to center, Alvarez scored.12–2
- 8Peña homered to left (425 feet), Barrosa scored.11–2
- 7White singled to left, Gelof scored.9–2
- 7Spence doubled to right, Altuve scored, Diaz to third.9–1
- 7Walker hit sacrifice fly to right, Paredes scored, Altuve to third.8–1
- 7Altuve singled to left, Peña scored, Paredes safe at second on error.7–1
- 5Alvarez homered to right (401 feet), Smith scored and Peña scored.6–1
- 4Gelof grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Butler scored, McNeil out at second, Langeliers to third.3–1
- 3Peña homered to center (417 feet), Smith scored.3–0
- 1Paredes homered to left (374 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 60%
- ML HOU -170 / ATH +140
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.1 pts
- HOU: Elo 54.0%, market 60.2%
- Fair odds
- HOU -151
- ATH +151 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 5.5 – 4.5 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1432 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +12 | HOU: Hayden Wesneski: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: Jack Perkins: team allows 0.59 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +28 Elo | HOU 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 60.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 59.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 60.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.420th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 5.729th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.3 | Margin | −1.430th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 11th of 3040–39 | Road vs home | 32–4729th of 30 |
| 30th of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 149624th of 30 |
| 18th of 301493 | Elo rating | 143229th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 82–78 | 78–82 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 31–45 | 12–28 |
| Underdog | 51–33 | 66–54 |
| Overs–unders | 78–71–11 | 83–70–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4–2 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 28–22 ATH in their last 50 meetings; the forecast called 30 of 50.