Houston Astros at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Christian WalkerBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ethan PeckoPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Athletics- Lawrence ButlerBatting2-4
- Seth JohnsonPitching1.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Diaz grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Allen scored, Delgado out at second.9–0
- 7Peña hit sacrifice fly to center, Spence scored, Trammell to second, Smith to third.8–0
- 7Smith singled to center, Walker scored, Spence to second.7–0
- 6Alvarez singled to right, Smith scored, Peña to third.6–0
- 6Walker homered to left (386 feet).5–0
- 3Spence tripled to center, Diaz scored and Walker scored.4–0
- 3Diaz doubled to left, Alvarez scored.2–0
- 3Altuve grounded out to first, Peña scored, Alvarez to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 64%
- ML HOU -199 / ATH +163
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.5 pts
- HOU: Elo 56.2%, market 63.6%
- Fair odds
- HOU -175
- ATH +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 5.9 – 4.6 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1429 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +1 | HOU: Peter Lambert: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: Seth Johnson: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +43 Elo | HOU 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 59.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 58.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 63.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.320th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 5.829th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −1.430th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 10th of 3041–39 | Road vs home | 32–4829th of 30 |
| 30th of 301490 | Opponent Elo | 149724th of 30 |
| 17th of 301497 | Elo rating | 142929th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 83–78 | 78–83 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 32–45 | 12–28 |
| Underdog | 51–33 | 66–55 |
| Overs–unders | 79–71–11 | 84–70–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–3–2 | 7–2–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 29–22 ATH in their last 51 meetings; the forecast called 31 of 51.