Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Jo AdellBatting2-4, 3 RBI
- Foster GriffinPitching2.2 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
White Sox- Sam AntonacciBatting1-2, 1 RBI
- Noah SchultzPitching3.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Rocchio singled to left, Halpin scored, Genao to third.9–3
- 9Genao doubled to left, Lowe scored, Halpin to third.8–3
- 8Ramírez tripled to left, Bazzana scored and Bailey scored.7–3
- 6Antonacci hit by pitch, B. Montgomery scored, C. Montgomery to second, Grichuk to third.5–3
- 5DeLauter grounded into fielder's choice to second, Ramírez scored.5–2
- 4Peters doubled to center, Meidroth scored.4–2
- 3Adell tripled to right, Kwan scored, Ramírez scored and DeLauter scored.4–1
- 3Kwan singled to left, Bazzana scored, Rocchio to second.1–1
- 1Teel doubled to right, Antonacci scored, Vargas to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
White Sox 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHW 54%
- ML CLE +110 / CHW -132
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- CHW: Elo 51.5%, market 54.4%
- Fair odds
- CHW -119
- CLE +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.6 – 3.9 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +1 | CLE: Daniel Espino: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · CHW: Sean Newcomb: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHW +11 Elo | CHW 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHW 54.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.85th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.39th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 6th of 3044–37 | Road vs home | 48–336th of 30 |
| 26th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 149723rd of 30 |
| 11th of 301507 | Elo rating | 150613th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 81–83 | 91–75 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 32–61 | 22–34 |
| Underdog | 49–22 | 69–41 |
| Overs–unders | 78–84–2 | 95–69–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 30–24 CHW in their last 54 meetings; the forecast called 33 of 54.
- Oct 5CHW 4 @ CLE 3PlayoffsPicked CLE 58%Miss
- Oct 3CHW 3 @ CLE 0PlayoffsPicked CLE 57%Miss
- Sep 16CHW 3 @ CLE 6Picked CLE 60%Hit
- Sep 15CHW 6 @ CLE 7Picked CLE 59%Hit
- Sep 14CHW 7 @ CLE 3Picked CLE 62%Miss
- Aug 9CLE 3 @ CHW 5Picked CLE 55%Miss
- Aug 8CLE 3 @ CHW 6Picked CLE 54%Miss
- Aug 7CLE 8 @ CHW 2Picked CLE 56%Hit