Cleveland Guardians at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Chase DeLauterBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Foster GriffinPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Rays- Cedric MullinsBatting1-1, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Drew RasmussenPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Adell doubled to left, DeLauter scored and Ramírez scored.7–3
- 9Ramírez singled to left, Martínez scored. Cleveland Guardians challenged: call on the field was overturned.5–3
- 8Mullins homered to right (384 feet).4–3
- 8Lowe singled to center, Ramírez scored and DeLauter scored.4–2
- 7Bailey homered to center (436 feet).2–2
- 6DeLauter homered to left center (381 feet).1–2
- 1DeLuca singled to center, Caminero scored, Mesa Jr. to third.0–2
- 1Caminero singled to center, Díaz scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- TB 60%
- ML CLE +145 / TB -163
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- 0.0 pts
- TB: Elo 60.3%, market 60.3%
- Fair odds
- TB -152
- CLE +152 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 2.8 – 3.7 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +17 | CLE: Foster Griffin: team allows 0.50 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Drew Rasmussen: team allows 0.85 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +73 Elo | TB 60.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 58.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 58.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 60.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.512th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.06th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.56th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 6th of 3044–37 | Road vs home | 55–262nd of 30 |
| 26th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 10th of 301514 | Elo rating | 15424th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 84–83 | 90–75 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 33–61 | 52–48 |
| Underdog | 51–22 | 38–27 |
| Overs–unders | 80–85–2 | 76–83–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 12–14 TB in their last 26 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 26.