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Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast

FinalSeries tied 2-2

Away

Rays

98-64

7–3

at

Home

Guardians

85-77

TB 50%CLE 50%

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Progressive Field · TBS, truTV

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.

CLE75%50%75%TBStart12345678Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Rays
  • Yandy DiazBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
  • Nick MartinezPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Guardians
  • Travis BazzanaBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
  • Foster GriffinPitching3.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K

Scoring summary

  • 9Díaz homered to right (349 feet), Palacios scored.7–3
  • 7Rocchio singled to left, Bailey scored, Martínez to second.5–3
  • 7Bazzana homered to right (374 feet).5–2
  • 7Simpson hit sacrifice fly to right, Aranda scored.5–1
  • 7Aranda singled to right, Palacios scored on error and Walls scored on fielding error by right fielder DeLauter, Aranda to third.4–1
  • 6Caminero doubled to left, Aranda scored, Simpson to third.2–1
  • 3Aranda singled to center, Díaz scored.1–1
  • 1DeLauter singled to right, Kwan scored, DeLauter out stretching at second.0–1

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Rays 50%

Toss-upHit
TB 50%CLE 50%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.

Market
TB 50%
ML TB -108 / CLE -104
Pre-line forecast
TB 49%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
TB 51%
Ratings vs. market
+0.4 pts
TB: Elo 50.8%, market 50.5%
Fair odds
TB -102
CLE +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
TB 3.3 – 3.2 CLE
Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorTBCLEWhy
Team rating15391517Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers+10TB: Nick Martinez: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Shawn Armstrong: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsTB +6 EloTB 50.8%
Market-implied ratingsCLE 51.3%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastCLE 51.0%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastTB 50.5%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.

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Tampa Bay Rays and Cleveland Guardians compared, with each team's league rank
TBStatCLE
12th of 304.5Runs scored4.224th of 30
6th of 304.0Runs allowed4.18th of 30
6th of 30+0.5Margin+0.113th of 30
12th of 305–5Last 108–21st of 30
7th of 3043–38Road vs home41–4019th of 30
15th of 301500Opponent Elo149527th of 30
5th of 301539Elo rating151710th of 30

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

RaysGuardians
1450150015501600league averageAprAugDecAprAug

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonTBCLE
Run line92–7685–85
Last 106–46–4
Favorite53–4933–62
Underdog39–2752–23
Overs–unders77–85–681–87–2
Overs–unders, last 105–4–15–5

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

TB 15–14 CLE in their last 29 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 29.