Tampa Bay Rays at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Jonathan ArandaBatting3-3
- Nick MartinezPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Brewers- Jackson ChourioBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Jacob MisiorowskiPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Hicks grounded out to second, Mateo scored, Caminero to second, Simpson to third. Tampa Bay Rays challenged: call on the field was overturned.2–3
- 7Chourio singled to right, Pratt scored.1–3
- 4Hicks grounded out to first, Aranda scored, Caminero to third.1–2
- 1Contreras singled to left, Yelich scored.0–2
- 1Yelich tripled to center, Chourio scored.0–1
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Brewers 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 63%
- ML TB +158 / MIL -193
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.0 pts
- MIL: Elo 60.9%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- MIL -170
- TB +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 2.7 – 3.8 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1545 | 1590 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +15 | TB: Nick Martinez: team allows 0.00 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Jacob Misiorowski: team allows 0.73 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +77 Elo | MIL 60.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 66.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 65.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.12nd of 30 |
| 6th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 3.84th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +1.31st of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 7th of 3043–38 | Road vs home | 55–251st of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149722nd of 30 |
| 4th of 301545 | Elo rating | 15901st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 95–76 | 91–79 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 55–49 | 60–67 |
| Underdog | 40–27 | 31–12 |
| Overs–unders | 79–86–6 | 76–87–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 6–6 MIL in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 12.