Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
How the forecast moved
TB went from 49% to 41% over 7 updates; the betting line was first on file Wednesday, October 28 at 3:33 AM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Cooper PrattBatting2-3, 2 RBI
- Jacob MisiorowskiPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Rays- Chandler SimpsonBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Drew RasmussenPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Simpson doubled to right, Hicks scored.4–1
- 6Pratt hit sacrifice fly to right in foul territory, Contreras scored, Turang to third.4–0
- 6Contreras doubled to left, Yelich scored.3–0
- 5Hamilton singled to right, Pratt scored, Mitchell to second.2–0
- 2Pratt singled to center, Turang scored, Pratt thrown out at second, Frelick to third.1–0
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Brewers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 59%
- ML MIL -163 / TB +134
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.4 pts
- MIL: Elo 56.7%, market 59.2%
- Fair odds
- MIL -145
- TB +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 3.7 – 2.8 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1593 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | — | MIL: Jacob Misiorowski: team allows 0.67 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Starter not announced |
| Elo ratings | MIL +47 Elo | MIL 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 59.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 58.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 59.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.512th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.06th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.3 | Margin | +0.56th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3048–33 | Road vs home | 55–262nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 1st of 301593 | Elo rating | 15414th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 92–82 | 98–77 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 60–70 | 55–50 |
| Underdog | 32–12 | 43–27 |
| Overs–unders | 78–88–8 | 81–87–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 9–7 TB in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 16.
- Oct 27MIL 3 @ TB 4PlayoffsPicked MIL 54%Miss
- Oct 26MIL 10 @ TB 1PlayoffsPicked TB 52%Miss
- Oct 24TB 4 @ MIL 5PlayoffsPicked MIL 52%Hit
- Oct 23TB 2 @ MIL 3PlayoffsPicked MIL 63%Hit
- Apr 1TB 2 @ MIL 8Picked MIL 55%Hit
- Mar 31TB 2 @ MIL 6Picked MIL 53%Hit
- Mar 30TB 3 @ MIL 2Picked MIL 59%Miss
- May 11MIL 4 @ TB 2Picked TB 57%Miss