Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
How the forecast moved
TB went from 50% to 52% over 3 updates; the betting line was first on file Monday, October 26 at 3:19 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Jackson ChourioBatting4-5, 1 RBI
- Robert GasserPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Díaz doubled to center, Mullins scored.10–1
- 5Chourio doubled to right, Hamilton scored.10–0
- 5Hamilton singled to center, Frelick scored.9–0
- 5Frelick doubled to left, Pratt scored.8–0
- 5Pratt doubled to left, Mitchell scored and Turang scored.7–0
- 5Mitchell singled to left, Contreras scored, Turang to second.5–0
- 5Turang reached on infield single to shortstop, Chourio scored and Yelich scored, Contreras to second.4–0
- 3Contreras singled to right, Bauers scored, Contreras out stretching at second, Yelich to third.2–0
- 3Yelich singled to left, Chourio scored, Bauers to second.1–0
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Rays 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TB 52%
- ML MIL -101 / TB -119
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.0 pts
- TB: Elo 46.0%, market 52.0%
- Fair odds
- TB -108
- MIL +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 3.4 – 3.6 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1591 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +4 | MIL: Robert Gasser: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +28 Elo | MIL 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 52.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.512th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.06th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.3 | Margin | +0.56th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3048–33 | Road vs home | 55–262nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 1st of 301591 | Elo rating | 15434th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 91–81 | 97–76 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 60–69 | 55–49 |
| Underdog | 31–12 | 42–27 |
| Overs–unders | 77–88–7 | 80–87–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 8–6 TB in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 14.