Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
How the forecast moved
TB went from 50% to 46% over 5 updates; the betting line was first on file Monday, October 26 at 11:35 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Cooper PrattBatting4-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Dustin MayPitching3.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Rays- Chandler SimpsonBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Griffin JaxPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 12Williamson singled to right, Fortes scored, Simpson to second, DeLuca to third.3–4
- 12DeLuca singled to center, Mullins scored, Hicks to second.3–3
- 12Pratt homered to left center (396 feet).3–2
- 5Hamilton homered to right center (391 feet).2–2
- 4DeLuca grounded into fielder's choice to third, Caminero scored on throwing error by third baseman Hamilton.1–2
- 4Pratt doubled to left, Frelick scored.1–1
- 2Simpson doubled to right, DeLuca scored.0–1
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Brewers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 54%
- ML MIL -131 / TB +109
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.3 pts
- MIL: Elo 55.6%, market 54.2%
- Fair odds
- MIL -119
- TB +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 3.7 – 3.3 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1594 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | — | −3 | MIL: Starter not announced · TB: Griffin Jax: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +39 Elo | MIL 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 50.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 54.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.512th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.06th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.3 | Margin | +0.56th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3048–33 | Road vs home | 55–262nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 1st of 301594 | Elo rating | 15405th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 92–81 | 97–77 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 60–69 | 55–50 |
| Underdog | 32–12 | 42–27 |
| Overs–unders | 78–88–7 | 81–87–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 9–6 TB in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 15.
- Oct 26MIL 10 @ TB 1PlayoffsPicked TB 52%Miss
- Oct 24TB 4 @ MIL 5PlayoffsPicked MIL 52%Hit
- Oct 23TB 2 @ MIL 3PlayoffsPicked MIL 63%Hit
- Apr 1TB 2 @ MIL 8Picked MIL 55%Hit
- Mar 31TB 2 @ MIL 6Picked MIL 53%Hit
- Mar 30TB 3 @ MIL 2Picked MIL 59%Miss
- May 11MIL 4 @ TB 2Picked TB 57%Miss
- May 10MIL 2 @ TB 3Picked TB 51%Hit