NFL · 2026

New Orleans Saints

3-5 · #21 of 32 by Elo

Next gamevs

CAR· Sun, Nov 15 · 1:00 PM ETPlayoffs: 32% with a win, 15% with a loss55%to win

Matchup What if they win out?

Elo rating

1434

#21 of 32 · 1500 is average

Market rating

1448

#21 of 32 by recent lines

This season

−29

Elo change since opening night

Forecasts on their games

50%

4–4 this season

Offense

−1.3 pts

#25 of 32 · scored a game above average

Defense

−1.2 pts

#23 of 32 · allowed a game below average

By the numbers

This season, regular season, each with its league rank. Scoring and margin are a game; opponent Elo is how strong the teams they've played are. Home and road leave out their neutral-site game.

Points scored: 23.1; 15th of 32
Points allowed: 27.0; 27th fewest of 32
Margin: −3.9; 22nd of 32
Yards per play: 4.91; 24th of 32
Yards allowed per play: 5.69; 26th of 32
At home: 1–3; 19th of 32
On the road: 2–1; 6th of 32
Opponent Elo: 1505; 12th toughest of 32

Season outlook

From 10,000 simulations of the rest of the 2026 season and the playoffs, with standings ties broken by coin flip. Every team and how it works

Projected record

7-10

Now 3-5 · middle 80%: 5–9 wins

Make the playoffs

25%

Division: 25% · Top seed: <1%
About 8 wins usually gets them in

Reach the Super Bowl

Win it all

<1%

In 26 of 10,000 simulations

Playoff chances this season

Their chance to make the playoffs from each day's simulation of the rest of the season, since Nov 3. Now 25%.

Upcoming

Forecasts for their next games. Their next 3 opponents average 1549 Elo, the 8th-toughest stretch of the league's 32.

Sun, Nov 15 · 1:00 PM ETFox

Panthers

3-5

45%

Saints

3-5

55%

Pick NOToss-upLine NO -2.5

Sun, Nov 22 · 1:00 PM ETFox

Saints

3-5

20%

Bears

7-2

80%

Pick CHIStrongLine CHI -9.5

Sun, Nov 29 · 1:00 PM ETCBS

Saints

3-5

24%

Bengals

6-2

76%

Pick CINStrongPre-line forecast

Players

Who's been playing, busiest first. Each has projections, prop lines and recent games against the line.

Rating history

Elo over the last two seasons. The dashed line is league average.

Saints

Against the line

This season, against each game's closing spread and total.

Against the spread: 3–5
Last 10: 3–5
As the favorite: 0–3
As the underdog: 3–2
Overs–unders: 5–3
Overs–unders, last 10: 5–3

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Recent results

Last ten games and whether the forecast hit.

Injury report

Current ESPN report, with what the model subtracts for their next game.

Barion Brown WR
Active
Brown caught his only target for 52 yards during Sunday's 23-22 overtime win versus the Browns. He also lost a fumble on a punt return.
Bryce Lance WR
Active
Lance failed to catch his only target in Sunday's 23-22 overtime win over the Browns.
Travis Etienne Jr. RB
Injured Reserve
Head coach Kellen Moore said Monday that the Saints haven't yet determined whether Etienne (hamstring) will return from injured reserve ahead of Sunday's game against the Panthers, Luke Johnson of The New Orleans Times-Picayune reports. "We'll see," Moore said. "He's progressing well. We'll gather some more information and make a decision."
Erik McCoy C
Doubtful
doubtful
CJ Donaldson RB
Questionable
questionable
Charlie Smyth PK
Active
The Saints reverted Smyth to their practice squad Monday, per the NFL's transaction log.
Noah Fant TE
Active
Fant caught one pass for 12 yards on two targets in Sunday's 23-22 overtime win against Cleveland.
Devaughn Vele WR
Active
Vele caught two passes for 17 yards on four targets in Sunday's 23-22 overtime win over the Browns.
Jaylan Ford LB
Active
Mike Reid CB
Active
Mason Murphy OT
Active
John Ridgeway III DT
Active
Christen Miller DT
Active
Zach Wilson QB
Active
Alvin Kamara RB
Active
Kamara rushed six times for 32 yards while catching three of four targets for 17 yards during Sunday's 23-22 overtime win against the Browns.
Juwan Johnson TE
Active
Johnson caught both of his targets for 34 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 23-22 overtime win over the Browns.
Jordyn Tyson WR
Active
Tyson caught four of five targets for 30 yards in Sunday's 23-22 overtime win over the Browns. He also lost a fumble.
Audric Estime RB
Active
Estime carried the ball 15 times for 72 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 23-22 overtime win over the Browns. He also caught his only target for five yards.
Tyler Shough QB
Active
Shough completed 21 of 35 passes for 265 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 23-22 overtime win over the Browns.
Chris Olave WR
Active
Olave caught seven of 12 targets for 98 yards in Sunday's 23-22 overtime win over Cleveland.