Cleveland Browns at New Orleans Saints, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
NO went from 54% to 60% over 9 updates; the betting line was first on file Saturday, October 31 at 5:51 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Browns- Shedeur SandersPassing19/31, 297 YDS, 2 TD
- Quinshon JudkinsRushing15 CAR, 43 YDS
- Denzel BostonReceiving6 REC, 98 YDS
Saints- Tyler ShoughPassing21/35, 265 YDS, 1 TD
- Audric EstimeRushing15 CAR, 72 YDS, 1 TD
- Chris OlaveReceiving7 REC, 98 YDS
Scoring summary
- OT1:00Harold Fannin Jr. 39 Yd pass from Shedeur Sanders (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)22–23
- OT4:17Juwan Johnson 15 Yd pass from Tyler Shough (Charlie Smyth Kick)16–23
- Q40:08Andre Szmyt 51 Yd Field Goal16–16
- Q40:58Audric Estime 2 Yd Rush (Charlie Smyth Kick)13–16
- Q45:21KC Concepcion 64 Yd pass from Shedeur Sanders (Andre Szmyt Kick)13–9
- Q45:38Charlie Smyth 48 Yd Field Goal6–9
- Q32:26Charlie Smyth 27 Yd Field Goal6–6
- Q39:01Andre Szmyt 30 Yd Field Goal6–3
- Q210:30Andre Szmyt 41 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q17:20Charlie Smyth 30 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:21KC Concepcion 64 Yd pass from Shedeur Sanders (Andre Szmyt Kick)CLE 13 – 9 NO · CLE 24% → 78% +54CLE 24% → 78%+54 pts
- Q40:58Audric Estime 2 Yd Rush (Charlie Smyth Kick)CLE 13 – 16 NO · NO 3% → 94% +91NO 3% → 94%+91 pts
- Q40:08Andre Szmyt 51 Yd Field GoalCLE 16 – 16 NO · CLE <1% → 50% +50CLE <1% → 50%+50 pts
- OT4:17Juwan Johnson 15 Yd pass from Tyler Shough (Charlie Smyth Kick)CLE 16 – 23 NO · NO 53% → 96% +43NO 53% → 96%+43 pts
- OT1:00Harold Fannin Jr. 39 Yd pass from Shedeur Sanders (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)CLE 22 – 23 NO · CLE <1% → 30% +30CLE <1% → 30%+30 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Saints 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- NO -3
- ML CLE +142 / NO -170
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -0.5
- NO 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.1 pts
- NO: Elo 52.3%, market 60.4%
- Fair odds
- NO -149
- CLE +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 19.8 – 22.8 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 42.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1443 | 1427 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +2 | −2 | CLE: Deshaun Watson (65%) or Shedeur Sanders (35%) · NO: Tyler Shough (against each team's recent starters, from the depth chart and injury report) |
| Elo ratings | NO +16 Elo | NO 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 61.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 54.6% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NO 59.8% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CLE | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 3217.4 | Points scored | 23.114th of 32 |
| 13th of 3221.6 | Points allowed | 27.729th of 32 |
| 24th of 32−4.3 | Margin | −4.625th of 32 |
| 23rd of 324.99 | Yards per play | 4.8126th of 32 |
| 11th of 325.18 | Yards allowed per play | 5.7828th of 32 |
| 21st of 322–3 | Road vs home | 0–327th of 32 |
| 25th of 321481 | Opponent Elo | 15178th of 32 |
| 19th of 321443 | Elo rating | 142721st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–3 | 3–4 |
| Last 10 | 5–3 | 3–4 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 4–3 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 4–4 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4 | 4–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 0–1 NO in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.