Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Steelers- Aaron RodgersPassing22/40, 299 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT
- Jaylen WarrenRushing17 CAR, 93 YDS
- DK MetcalfReceiving5 REC, 115 YDS
Browns- Deshaun WatsonPassing24/33, 268 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Quinshon JudkinsRushing17 CAR, 53 YDS, 1 TD
- Denzel BostonReceiving4 REC, 89 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:10Andre Szmyt 56 Yd Field Goal24–27
- Q41:42Pat Freiermuth 3 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Aaron Rodgers Run for Two-Point Conversion)24–24
- Q46:37Andre Szmyt 44 Yd Field Goal16–24
- Q410:10Darnell Washington 21 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)16–21
- Q20:08Chris Boswell 31 Yd Field Goal10–21
- Q21:22Harold Fannin Jr. 2 Yd pass from Deshaun Watson (Andre Szmyt Kick)7–21
- Q28:28Quinshon Judkins 2 Yd Rush (Andre Szmyt Kick)7–14
- Q212:14Jaleel McLaughlin 28 Yd Rush (Andre Szmyt Kick)7–7
- Q12:59Roman Wilson 12 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Chris Boswell Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q212:14Jaleel McLaughlin 28 Yd Rush (Andre Szmyt Kick)PIT 7 – 7 CLE · CLE 25% → 44% +19CLE 25% → 44%+19 pts
- Q28:28Quinshon Judkins 2 Yd Rush (Andre Szmyt Kick)PIT 7 – 14 CLE · CLE 44% → 66% +21CLE 44% → 66%+21 pts
- Q410:10Darnell Washington 21 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)PIT 16 – 21 CLE · PIT 5% → 24% +19PIT 5% → 24%+19 pts
- Q41:42Pat Freiermuth 3 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Aaron Rodgers Run for Two-Point Conversion)PIT 24 – 24 CLE · PIT <1% → 51% +51PIT <1% → 51%+51 pts
- Q40:10Andre Szmyt 56 Yd Field GoalPIT 24 – 27 CLE · CLE 50% → >99% +50CLE 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Steelers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- PIT -2.5
- ML PIT -148 / CLE +124
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT -0.5
- PIT 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.6 pts
- PIT: Elo 52.6%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- PIT -132
- CLE +132 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 20.5 – 18.0 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 38.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1453 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +12 | +13 | PIT: Aaron Rodgers · CLE: Deshaun Watson (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +18 Elo | PIT 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 58.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 54.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 56.9% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| PIT | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 3217.7 | Points scored | 18.024th of 32 |
| 11th of 3220.0 | Points allowed | 23.718th of 32 |
| 17th of 32−2.3 | Margin | −5.723rd of 32 |
| 24th of 324.79 | Yards per play | 4.7825th of 32 |
| 21st of 325.52 | Yards allowed per play | 5.3818th of 32 |
| 17th of 310–1 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 32 |
| 12th of 321515 | Opponent Elo | 148121st of 32 |
| 15th of 321509 | Elo rating | 145320th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  PIT |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 9–9 | 8–9 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–4 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 5–5 | 7–7 |
| Overs–unders | 9–9 | 8–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 3–3 CLE in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.