Carolina Panthers at Cleveland Browns, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Bryce YoungPassing26/48, 291 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Chuba HubbardRushing19 CAR, 82 YDS
- Brycen TremayneReceiving4 REC, 83 YDS
Browns- Deshaun WatsonPassing16/30, 144 YDS, 2 TD
- Quinshon JudkinsRushing18 CAR, 70 YDS
- Harold Fannin Jr.Receiving7 REC, 51 YDS, 2 TD
Scoring summary
- Q41:48Harold Fannin Jr. 14 Yd pass from Deshaun Watson (Deshaun Watson Pass to Denzel Boston for Two-Point Conversion)18–21
- Q44:25John Metchie III 8 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)18–13
- Q47:30Andre Szmyt 45 Yd Field Goal12–13
- Q411:41Ryan Fitzgerald 37 Yd Field Goal12–10
- Q33:17Ryan Fitzgerald 53 Yd Field Goal9–10
- Q313:22Ryan Fitzgerald 41 Yd Field Goal6–10
- Q20:27Ryan Fitzgerald 35 Yd Field Goal3–10
- Q21:37Harold Fannin Jr. 2 Yd pass from Deshaun Watson (Andre Szmyt Kick)0–10
- Q25:43Andre Szmyt 48 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q21:37Harold Fannin Jr. 2 Yd pass from Deshaun Watson (Andre Szmyt Kick)CAR 0 – 10 CLE · CLE 58% → 79% +21CLE 58% → 79%+21 pts
- Q411:41Ryan Fitzgerald 37 Yd Field GoalCAR 12 – 10 CLE · CAR 46% → 63% +17CAR 46% → 63%+17 pts
- Q47:30Andre Szmyt 45 Yd Field GoalCAR 12 – 13 CLE · CLE 35% → 56% +21CLE 35% → 56%+21 pts
- Q44:25John Metchie III 8 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)CAR 18 – 13 CLE · CAR 42% → 88% +46CAR 42% → 88%+46 pts
- Q41:48Harold Fannin Jr. 14 Yd pass from Deshaun Watson (Deshaun Watson Pass to Denzel Boston for Two-Point Conversion)CAR 18 – 21 CLE · CLE 3% → 86% +83CLE 3% → 86%+83 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- CAR -2.5
- ML CAR -130 / CLE +110
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -1.5
- CAR 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.8 pts
- CAR: Elo 44.5%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- CAR -115
- CLE +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 22.0 – 19.5 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 41.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1442 | 1438 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +6 | +12 | CAR: Bryce Young · CLE: Deshaun Watson, usually Shedeur Sanders (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +39 Elo | CLE 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 53.1% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 53.5% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CAR | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 3218.3 | Points scored | 16.431st of 32 |
| 15th of 3222.4 | Points allowed | 22.314th of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−4.1 | Margin | −5.928th of 32 |
| 26th of 324.97 | Yards per play | 4.3332nd of 32 |
| 20th of 325.48 | Yards allowed per play | 4.754th of 32 |
| 18th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 32 |
| 21st of 323–6 | Road vs home | 3–523rd of 32 |
| 13th of 321506 | Opponent Elo | 151010th of 32 |
| 20th of 321442 | Elo rating | 143822nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  CAR |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 11–7 | 8–9 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 11–5 | 7–7 |
| Overs–unders | 8–10 | 8–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.