Los Angeles Rams at Carolina Panthers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rams- Matthew StaffordPassing24/42, 304 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- Kyren WilliamsRushing13 CAR, 57 YDS
- Puka NacuaReceiving10 REC, 111 YDS, 1 TD
Panthers- Bryce YoungPassing21/40, 264 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Chuba HubbardRushing13 CAR, 46 YDS, 2 TD
- Jalen CokerReceiving9 REC, 134 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q40:38Colby Parkinson 19 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Harrison Mevis Kick)34–31
- Q42:39Jalen Coker 7 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)27–31
- Q48:47Kyren Williams 13 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Harrison Mevis Kick)27–24
- Q414:34Chuba Hubbard 3 Yd Rush (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)20–24
- Q34:17Harrison Mevis 42 Yd Field Goal20–17
- Q37:29Ryan Fitzgerald 46 Yd Field Goal17–17
- Q20:37Bryce Young 16 Yd Rush (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)17–14
- Q25:24Harrison Mevis 46 Yd Field Goal17–7
- Q28:53Chuba Hubbard 1 Yd Rush (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)14–7
- Q212:16Puka Nacua 5 Yd Rush (Harrison Mevis Kick)14–0
- Q111:35Puka Nacua 14 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Harrison Mevis Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q20:37Bryce Young 16 Yd Rush (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)LAR 17 – 14 CAR · CAR 7% → 19% +12CAR 7% → 19%+12 pts
- Q414:34Chuba Hubbard 3 Yd Rush (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)LAR 20 – 24 CAR · CAR 21% → 53% +32CAR 21% → 53%+32 pts
- Q48:47Kyren Williams 13 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Harrison Mevis Kick)LAR 27 – 24 CAR · LAR 37% → 80% +42LAR 37% → 80%+42 pts
- Q42:39Jalen Coker 7 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)LAR 27 – 31 CAR · CAR 14% → 84% +70CAR 14% → 84%+70 pts
- Q40:38Colby Parkinson 19 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Harrison Mevis Kick)LAR 34 – 31 CAR · LAR <1% → 97% +96LAR <1% → 97%+96 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rams 81%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 85.7% of 35 graded games.
- Market
- LAR -10
- ML LAR -550 / CAR +410
- Pre-line forecast
- LAR 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAR -9
- LAR 78%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.3 pts
- LAR: Elo 77.9%, market 81.2%
- Fair odds
- LAR -425
- CAR +425 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAR 27.3 – 17.3 CAR
- Posted spread, posted total 44.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAR | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1650 | 1396 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +6 | +5 | LAR: Matthew Stafford · CAR: Bryce Young (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAR +219 Elo | LAR 77.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAR 75.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAR 77.4% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAR 81.0% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LAR | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 3230.5 | Points scored | 18.327th of 32 |
| 10th of 3220.4 | Points allowed | 22.415th of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+10.1 | Margin | −4.123rd of 32 |
| 1st of 326.18 | Yards per play | 4.9726th of 32 |
| 14th of 325.19 | Yards allowed per play | 5.4820th of 32 |
| 6th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 32 |
| 13th of 324–4 | Road vs home | 5–39th of 32 |
| 11th of 321516 | Opponent Elo | 150018th of 32 |
| 5th of 321650 | Elo rating | 139626th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAR |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 12–5 | 10–7 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–4 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 10–5 |
| Overs–unders | 10–7 | 7–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAR 0–1 CAR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.