Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rams- Matthew StaffordPassing29/49, 457 YDS, 3 TD
- Kyren WilliamsRushing23 CAR, 70 YDS
- Puka NacuaReceiving12 REC, 225 YDS, 2 TD
Seahawks- Sam DarnoldPassing22/34, 270 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- Kenneth Walker IIIRushing11 CAR, 100 YDS, 1 TD
- Jaxon Smith-NjigbaReceiving8 REC, 96 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- OT3:13Jaxon Smith-Njigba 4 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Sam Darnold Pass to Eric Saubert for Two-Point Conversion)37–38
- OT6:27Puka Nacua 41 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Harrison Mevis Kick)37–30
- Q46:23AJ Barner 26 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Zach Charbonnet Run for Two-Point Conversion)30–30
- Q48:03Rashid Shaheed 58 Yd Punt Return (Sam Darnold Pass to Cooper Kupp for Two-Point Conversion)30–22
- Q413:34Puka Nacua 1 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Harrison Mevis Kick)30–14
- Q36:30Blake Corum 1 Yd Rush (Harrison Mevis Kick)23–14
- Q38:37Harrison Mevis 41 Yd Field Goal16–14
- Q312:57Kenneth Walker III 55 Yd Rush (Jason Myers Kick)13–14
- Q23:43Terrance Ferguson 3 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Harrison Mevis Kick)13–7
- Q212:45Harrison Mevis 28 Yd Field Goal6–7
- Q11:43Harrison Mevis 23 Yd Field Goal3–7
- Q17:09Zach Charbonnet 4 Yd Rush (Jason Myers Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q312:57Kenneth Walker III 55 Yd Rush (Jason Myers Kick)LAR 13 – 14 SEA · SEA 32% → 57% +25SEA 32% → 57%+25 pts
- Q36:30Blake Corum 1 Yd Rush (Harrison Mevis Kick)LAR 23 – 14 SEA · LAR 56% → 81% +25LAR 56% → 81%+25 pts
- Q46:23AJ Barner 26 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Zach Charbonnet Run for Two-Point Conversion)LAR 30 – 30 SEA · SEA 7% → 51% +45SEA 7% → 51%+45 pts
- OT6:27Puka Nacua 41 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Harrison Mevis Kick)LAR 37 – 30 SEA · LAR 49% → 90% +42LAR 49% → 90%+42 pts
- OT3:13Jaxon Smith-Njigba 4 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Sam Darnold Pass to Eric Saubert for Two-Point Conversion)LAR 37 – 38 SEA · SEA 3% → 62% +59SEA 3% → 62%+59 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Seahawks 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- SEA -1.5
- ML LAR +110 / SEA -130
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA -2
- SEA 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.3 pts
- SEA: Elo 56.6%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- SEA -120
- LAR +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAR 20.5 – 22.0 SEA
- Posted spread, posted total 42.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAR | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1680 | 1666 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +7 | +30 | LAR: Matthew Stafford · SEA: Sam Darnold (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +46 Elo | SEA 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 55.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 56.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 54.4% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LAR | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 3230.0 | Points scored | 28.95th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3218.6 | Points allowed | 17.32nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+11.4 | Margin | +11.61st of 32 |
| 1st of 326.21 | Yards per play | 5.995th of 32 |
| 7th of 324.97 | Yards allowed per play | 4.491st of 32 |
| 3rd of 328–2 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 32 |
| 4th of 324–2 | Road vs home | 5–27th of 32 |
| 11th of 321517 | Opponent Elo | 148226th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321680 | Elo rating | 16663rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAR |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 10–4 | 10–4 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 10–3 | 8–3 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 7–7 | 8–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAR 4–1 SEA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.