Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Vikings- Max BrosmerPassing19/30, 126 YDS, 4 INT
- Jordan MasonRushing6 CAR, 47 YDS
- T.J. HockensonReceiving6 REC, 59 YDS
Seahawks- Sam DarnoldPassing14/26, 128 YDS
- Kenneth Walker IIIRushing13 CAR, 56 YDS
- AJ BarnerReceiving4 REC, 35 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q49:11Zach Charbonnet 17 Yd Run (Jason Myers Kick)0–26
- Q33:16Jason Myers 40 Yd Field Goal0–19
- Q311:14Jason Myers 54 Yd Field Goal0–16
- Q20:08Jason Myers 56 Yd Field Goal0–13
- Q22:59Ernest Jones IV 85 Yd Interception Return (Jason Myers Kick)0–10
- Q27:10Jason Myers 33 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q27:10Jason Myers 33 Yd Field GoalMIN 0 – 3 SEA · SEA 82% → 88% +6SEA 82% → 88%+6 pts
- Q22:59Ernest Jones IV 85 Yd Interception Return (Jason Myers Kick)MIN 0 – 10 SEA · SEA 87% → 96% +9SEA 87% → 96%+9 pts
- Q20:08Jason Myers 56 Yd Field GoalMIN 0 – 13 SEA · SEA 96% → 98% +2SEA 96% → 98%+2 pts
- Q311:14Jason Myers 54 Yd Field GoalMIN 0 – 16 SEA · SEA 98% → 99% +1SEA 98% → 99%+1 pts
- Q33:16Jason Myers 40 Yd Field GoalMIN 0 – 19 SEA · SEA >99% → >99% +0SEA >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Seahawks 88%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 93.3% of 30 graded games.
- Market
- SEA -12.5
- ML MIN +700 / SEA -1200
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 80%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA -11
- SEA 83%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.3 pts
- SEA: Elo 82.8%, market 88.1%
- Fair odds
- SEA -715
- MIN +715 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 15.0 – 27.5 SEA
- Posted spread, posted total 42.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1634 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −78 | +34 | MIN: Max Brosmer, usually Sam Darnold · SEA: Sam Darnold, usually Geno Smith (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +273 Elo | SEA 82.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 69.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 80.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 87.7% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| MIN | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 3220.4 | Points scored | 29.52nd of 32 |
| 18th of 3223.2 | Points allowed | 19.77th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−2.8 | Margin | +9.72nd of 32 |
| 27th of 325.03 | Yards per play | 6.271st of 32 |
| 7th of 325.07 | Yards allowed per play | 4.643rd of 32 |
| 22nd of 323–7 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 32 |
| 12th of 322–2 | Road vs home | 3–215th of 32 |
| 6th of 321526 | Opponent Elo | 147228th of 32 |
| 19th of 321509 | Elo rating | 16344th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–7 | 8–3 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 6–2 |
| Underdog | 2–4 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 7–4 | 7–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 1–0 SEA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.