Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Seahawks- Sam DarnoldPassing29/44, 279 YDS, 4 INT
- Kenneth Walker IIIRushing16 CAR, 67 YDS, 1 TD
- Jaxon Smith-NjigbaReceiving9 REC, 105 YDS
Rams- Matthew StaffordPassing15/28, 130 YDS, 2 TD
- Kyren WilliamsRushing12 CAR, 91 YDS, 1 TD
- Puka NacuaReceiving7 REC, 75 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q42:23Kenneth Walker III 1 Yd Rush (Jason Myers Kick)19–21
- Q414:15Colby Parkinson 6 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Harrison Mevis Kick)12–21
- Q38:02Jason Myers 29 Yd Field Goal12–14
- Q20:00Jason Myers 22 Yd Field Goal9–14
- Q29:04Jason Myers 30 Yd Field Goal6–14
- Q11:04Davante Adams 1 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Harrison Mevis Kick)3–14
- Q16:31Jason Myers 57 Yd Field Goal3–7
- Q18:38Kyren Williams 1 Yd Rush (Harrison Mevis Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:38Kyren Williams 1 Yd Rush (Harrison Mevis Kick)SEA 0 – 7 LAR · LAR 60% → 76% +16LAR 60% → 76%+16 pts
- Q11:04Davante Adams 1 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Harrison Mevis Kick)SEA 3 – 14 LAR · LAR 70% → 85% +15LAR 70% → 85%+15 pts
- Q38:02Jason Myers 29 Yd Field GoalSEA 12 – 14 LAR · SEA 25% → 36% +11SEA 25% → 36%+11 pts
- Q414:15Colby Parkinson 6 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Harrison Mevis Kick)SEA 12 – 21 LAR · LAR 65% → 90% +25LAR 65% → 90%+25 pts
- Q42:23Kenneth Walker III 1 Yd Rush (Jason Myers Kick)SEA 19 – 21 LAR · SEA <1% → 25% +25SEA <1% → 25%+25 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rams 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- LAR -3.5
- ML SEA +148 / LAR -172
- Pre-line forecast
- LAR 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- LAR 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.5 pts
- LAR: Elo 50.6%, market 61.1%
- Fair odds
- LAR -152
- SEA +152 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 23.0 – 26.5 LAR
- Posted spread, posted total 49.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | LAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1644 | 1640 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +36 | +8 | SEA: Sam Darnold, usually Geno Smith · LAR: Matthew Stafford (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAR +4 Elo | LAR 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAR 61.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAR 53.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAR 60.3% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| SEA | Stat | LAR |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 3230.6 | Points scored | 27.96th of 32 |
| 6th of 3219.1 | Points allowed | 17.02nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+11.4 | Margin | +10.93rd of 32 |
| 2nd of 326.31 | Yards per play | 5.866th of 32 |
| 3rd of 324.65 | Yards allowed per play | 4.926th of 32 |
| 1st of 324–0 | Road vs home | 3–16th of 32 |
| 24th of 321484 | Opponent Elo | 151212th of 32 |
| 5th of 321644 | Elo rating | 16406th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  LAR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–2 | 7–2 |
| Last 10 | 7–2 | 7–2 |
| Favorite | 6–1 | 7–1 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 6–3 | 4–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3 | 4–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 1–3 LAR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.