Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Seahawks- Geno SmithPassing20/27, 223 YDS, 4 TD
- Zach CharbonnetRushing14 CAR, 59 YDS
- Noah FantReceiving5 REC, 63 YDS, 1 TD
Rams- Jimmy GaroppoloPassing27/41, 334 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Ronnie RiversRushing12 CAR, 48 YDS
- Jordan WhittingtonReceiving3 REC, 86 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q43:19Noah Fant 16 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)30–25
- Q47:29Joshua Karty 38 Yd Field Goal24–25
- Q412:43Tyler Johnson 4 Yd pass from Jimmy Garoppolo (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)24–22
- Q33:00AJ Barner 4 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Jason Myers Kick)24–16
- Q37:54Joshua Karty 57 Yd Field Goal17–16
- Q20:00Joshua Karty 58 Yd Field Goal17–13
- Q23:21Jason Myers 56 Yd Field Goal17–10
- Q28:47Tyler Higbee 6 Yd pass from Jimmy Garoppolo (Joshua Karty Kick)14–10
- Q212:48DK Metcalf 20 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Jason Myers Kick)14–3
- Q10:37Joshua Karty 37 Yd Field Goal7–3
- Q15:21Jake Bobo 4 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Jason Myers Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:21Jake Bobo 4 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Jason Myers Kick)SEA 7 – 0 LAR · SEA 71% → 85% +14SEA 71% → 85%+14 pts
- Q33:00AJ Barner 4 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Jason Myers Kick)SEA 24 – 16 LAR · SEA 67% → 89% +22SEA 67% → 89%+22 pts
- Q412:43Tyler Johnson 4 Yd pass from Jimmy Garoppolo (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)SEA 24 – 22 LAR · LAR 8% → 29% +21LAR 8% → 29%+21 pts
- Q47:29Joshua Karty 38 Yd Field GoalSEA 24 – 25 LAR · LAR 28% → 49% +20LAR 28% → 49%+20 pts
- Q43:19Noah Fant 16 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)SEA 30 – 25 LAR · SEA 45% → 93% +48SEA 45% → 93%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Seahawks 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- SEA -7.5
- ML SEA -340 / LAR +270
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA -1.5
- SEA 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −18.7 pts
- SEA: Elo 55.4%, market 74.1%
- Fair odds
- SEA -269
- LAR +269 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 23.0 – 15.5 LAR
- Posted spread, posted total 38.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | LAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1589 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +3 | −134 | SEA: Geno Smith · LAR: Jimmy Garoppolo, usually Matthew Stafford (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +37 Elo | SEA 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 57.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 55.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 72.9% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| SEA | Stat | LAR |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 3221.6 | Points scored | 21.420th of 32 |
| 11th of 3221.4 | Points allowed | 22.316th of 32 |
| 14th of 32+0.1 | Margin | −0.918th of 32 |
| 14th of 325.44 | Yards per play | 5.3615th of 32 |
| 12th of 325.25 | Yards allowed per play | 5.6426th of 32 |
| 10th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 8–25th of 32 |
| 3rd of 326–1 | Road vs home | 5–310th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  LAR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–9 | 8–7 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | 4–3 |
| Underdog | 5–6 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders | 7–8 | 7–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 0–3 LAR in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.