Seattle Seahawks at New York Jets, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Seahawks- Geno SmithPassing20/31, 206 YDS, 1 TD
- Kenneth Walker IIIRushing16 CAR, 49 YDS
- Jaxon Smith-NjigbaReceiving4 REC, 74 YDS
Jets- Aaron RodgersPassing21/39, 185 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Breece HallRushing12 CAR, 60 YDS
- Davante AdamsReceiving5 REC, 66 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q45:31Zach Charbonnet 8 Yd Run (Jason Myers Kick)26–21
- Q413:11Jason Myers 43 Yd Field Goal19–21
- Q24:15Jason Myers 54 Yd Field Goal16–21
- Q27:39Leonard Williams 92 Yd Interception Return (Jason Myers PAT blocked)13–21
- Q210:40Kene Nwangwu 99 Yd Kickoff Return (Anders Carlson Kick)7–21
- Q210:53AJ Barner 12 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Jason Myers Kick)7–14
- Q11:47Isaiah Davis 4 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Breece Hall Run for Two-Point Conversion)0–14
- Q13:25Davante Adams 8 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Anders Carlson PAT blocked)0–6
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q13:25Davante Adams 8 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Anders Carlson PAT blocked)SEA 0 – 6 NYJ · NYJ 53% → 69% +16NYJ 53% → 69%+16 pts
- Q11:47Isaiah Davis 4 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Breece Hall Run for Two-Point Conversion)SEA 0 – 14 NYJ · NYJ 69% → 86% +17NYJ 69% → 86%+17 pts
- Q210:53AJ Barner 12 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Jason Myers Kick)SEA 7 – 14 NYJ · SEA 13% → 28% +15SEA 13% → 28%+15 pts
- Q210:40Kene Nwangwu 99 Yd Kickoff Return (Anders Carlson Kick)SEA 7 – 21 NYJ · NYJ 73% → 87% +15NYJ 73% → 87%+15 pts
- Q45:31Zach Charbonnet 8 Yd Run (Jason Myers Kick)SEA 26 – 21 NYJ · SEA 33% → 84% +51SEA 33% → 84%+51 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- NYJ -1.5
- ML SEA +108 / NYJ -128
- Pre-line forecast
- NYJ 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA -2
- NYJ 43%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.7 pts
- NYJ: Elo 43.2%, market 53.9%
- Fair odds
- NYJ -113
- SEA +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 20.0 – 21.5 NYJ
- Posted spread, posted total 41.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | NYJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1413 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +5 | +13 | SEA: Geno Smith · NYJ: Aaron Rodgers (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +48 Elo | SEA 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYJ 62.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 52.1% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYJ 53.1% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| SEA | Stat | NYJ |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 3222.4 | Points scored | 18.527th of 32 |
| 14th of 3222.2 | Points allowed | 22.012th of 32 |
| 15th of 32+0.2 | Margin | −3.523rd of 32 |
| 14th of 325.50 | Yards per play | 4.9924th of 32 |
| 18th of 325.47 | Yards allowed per play | 4.884th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 32 |
| 6th of 323–1 | Road vs home | 2–322nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  NYJ |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–6 | 3–6 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–6 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 3–5 |
| Underdog | 3–4 | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 4–6 | 4–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.