New York Jets at New England Patriots, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Aaron RodgersPassing17/28, 233 YDS, 2 TD
- Breece HallRushing16 CAR, 80 YDS
- Garrett WilsonReceiving5 REC, 113 YDS
Patriots- Jacoby BrissettPassing15/24, 132 YDS
- Rhamondre StevensonRushing20 CAR, 48 YDS, 2 TD
- Kayshon BoutteReceiving3 REC, 46 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:22Rhamondre Stevenson 1 Yd Run (Jacoby Brissett Pass to Rhamondre Stevenson for Two-Point Conversion)22–25
- Q42:57Braelon Allen 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)22–17
- Q47:34Joey Slye 23 Yd Field Goal16–17
- Q37:54Greg Zuerlein 29 Yd Field Goal16–14
- Q310:55Rhamondre Stevenson 3 Yd Run (Joey Slye Kick)13–14
- Q29:06Xavier Gipson 1 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Greg Zuerlein Kick)13–7
- Q11:23Tyler Conklin 2 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Greg Zuerlein PAT failed)6–7
- Q15:18Drake Maye 17 Yd Run (Joey Slye Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:18Drake Maye 17 Yd Run (Joey Slye Kick)NYJ 0 – 7 NE · NE 28% → 46% +18NE 28% → 46%+18 pts
- Q310:55Rhamondre Stevenson 3 Yd Run (Joey Slye Kick)NYJ 13 – 14 NE · NE 16% → 38% +21NE 16% → 38%+21 pts
- Q47:34Joey Slye 23 Yd Field GoalNYJ 16 – 17 NE · NE 28% → 48% +20NE 28% → 48%+20 pts
- Q42:57Braelon Allen 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)NYJ 22 – 17 NE · NYJ 44% → 94% +50NYJ 44% → 94%+50 pts
- Q40:22Rhamondre Stevenson 1 Yd Run (Jacoby Brissett Pass to Rhamondre Stevenson for Two-Point Conversion)NYJ 22 – 25 NE · NE <1% → >99% +99NE <1% → >99%+99 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- NYJ -7.5
- ML NYJ -340 / NE +270
- Pre-line forecast
- NYJ 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYJ -4.5
- NYJ 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.1 pts
- NYJ: Elo 65.0%, market 74.1%
- Fair odds
- NYJ -277
- NE +277 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYJ 24.5 – 17.0 NE
- Posted spread, posted total 41.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYJ | NE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1442 | 1304 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +7 | +1 | NYJ: Aaron Rodgers · NE: Drake Maye, usually Mac Jones (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NYJ +107 Elo | NYJ 65.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYJ 68.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYJ 65.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYJ 73.5% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NYJ | Stat | NE |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 3218.3 | Points scored | 14.130th of 32 |
| 11th of 3220.7 | Points allowed | 25.024th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−2.4 | Margin | −10.931st of 32 |
| 22nd of 325.00 | Yards per play | 4.4730th of 32 |
| 4th of 324.81 | Yards allowed per play | 5.7225th of 32 |
| 19th of 321–2 | Road vs home | 0–326th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYJ |  NE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–3 | 1–4 |
| Last 10 | 2–3 | 1–4 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | — |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 1–4 |
| Overs–unders | 2–3 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–3 | 3–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYJ 2–1 NE in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.