Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dolphins- Tyler HuntleyPassing18/31, 194 YDS, 1 INT
- Jaylen WrightRushing13 CAR, 86 YDS
- Tyreek HillReceiving6 REC, 69 YDS
Patriots- Jacoby BrissettPassing18/34, 160 YDS
- Rhamondre StevensonRushing12 CAR, 89 YDS, 1 TD
- DeMario DouglasReceiving6 REC, 59 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q44:24Alec Ingold 3 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)15–10
- Q30:30Jason Sanders 47 Yd Field Goal9–10
- Q37:47Jason Sanders 32 Yd Field Goal6–10
- Q311:01Joey Slye 38 Yd Field Goal3–10
- Q13:55Rhamondre Stevenson 33 Yd Run (Joey Slye Kick)3–7
- Q110:39Jason Sanders 54 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q13:55Rhamondre Stevenson 33 Yd Run (Joey Slye Kick)MIA 3 – 7 NE · NE 39% → 58% +19NE 39% → 58%+19 pts
- Q311:01Joey Slye 38 Yd Field GoalMIA 3 – 10 NE · NE 63% → 73% +10NE 63% → 73%+10 pts
- Q37:47Jason Sanders 32 Yd Field GoalMIA 6 – 10 NE · MIA 25% → 36% +11MIA 25% → 36%+11 pts
- Q30:30Jason Sanders 47 Yd Field GoalMIA 9 – 10 NE · MIA 32% → 47% +14MIA 32% → 47%+14 pts
- Q44:24Alec Ingold 3 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)MIA 15 – 10 NE · MIA 42% → 88% +47MIA 42% → 88%+47 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dolphins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -2.5
- ML MIA -130 / NE +110
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 42%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NE -3
- MIA 39%
- Ratings vs. market
- −15.1 pts
- MIA: Elo 39.2%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- MIA -113
- NE +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 19.5 – 17.0 NE
- Posted spread, posted total 36.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | NE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1443 | 1374 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −107 | +1 | MIA: Tyler Huntley, usually Tua Tagovailoa · NE: Jacoby Brissett, usually Mac Jones (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NE +76 Elo | NE 60.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NE 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NE 58.5% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 53.1% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| MIA | Stat | NE |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 3211.3 | Points scored | 13.031st of 32 |
| 26th of 3225.8 | Points allowed | 21.815th of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−14.5 | Margin | −8.828th of 32 |
| 26th of 324.56 | Yards per play | 3.9830th of 32 |
| 13th of 325.20 | Yards allowed per play | 5.7927th of 32 |
| 26th of 320–1 | Road vs home | 0–123rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIA 2–0 NE in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.