Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bills- Josh AllenPassing13/19, 139 YDS, 1 TD
- James Cook IIIRushing11 CAR, 78 YDS, 2 TD
- Khalil ShakirReceiving5 REC, 54 YDS
Dolphins- Tua TagovailoaPassing17/25, 145 YDS, 1 TD, 3 INT
- De'Von AchaneRushing22 CAR, 96 YDS
- De'Von AchaneReceiving7 REC, 69 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q39:27Ja'Marcus Ingram 31 Yd Interception Return (Tyler Bass Kick)31–10
- Q20:04Jason Sanders 34 Yd Field Goal24–10
- Q23:36James Cook 49 Yd Run (Tyler Bass Kick)24–7
- Q26:25James Cook 1 Yd Run (Tyler Bass Kick)17–7
- Q212:41Tyler Bass 43 Yd Field Goal10–7
- Q13:21De'Von Achane 5 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Jason Sanders Kick)7–7
- Q19:49James Cook 17 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:49James Cook 17 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)BUF 7 – 0 MIA · BUF 53% → 70% +17BUF 53% → 70%+17 pts
- Q13:21De'Von Achane 5 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Jason Sanders Kick)BUF 7 – 7 MIA · MIA 29% → 47% +18MIA 29% → 47%+18 pts
- Q212:41Tyler Bass 43 Yd Field GoalBUF 10 – 7 MIA · BUF 53% → 61% +9BUF 53% → 61%+9 pts
- Q26:25James Cook 1 Yd Run (Tyler Bass Kick)BUF 17 – 7 MIA · BUF 62% → 81% +19BUF 62% → 81%+19 pts
- Q23:36James Cook 49 Yd Run (Tyler Bass Kick)BUF 24 – 7 MIA · BUF 82% → 93% +12BUF 82% → 93%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bills 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF -1.5
- BUF 56%
- Fair odds
- BUF -113
- MIA +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 23.9 – 23.0 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1612 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | BUF: Josh Allen · MIA: Tua Tagovailoa (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +39 Elo | BUF 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 53.1% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| BUF | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 3226.5 | Points scored | 29.22nd of 32 |
| 4th of 3218.3 | Points allowed | 23.022nd of 32 |
| 4th of 32+8.2 | Margin | +6.25th of 32 |
| 5th of 325.71 | Yards per play | 6.482nd of 32 |
| 11th of 325.14 | Yards allowed per play | 5.1210th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 32 |
| 13th of 324–4 | Road vs home | 7–24th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BUF 2–0 MIA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.