Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jaguars- Trevor LawrencePassing12/21, 162 YDS, 1 TD
- Tank BigsbyRushing12 CAR, 73 YDS
- Gabe DavisReceiving3 REC, 62 YDS
Dolphins- Tua TagovailoaPassing23/37, 338 YDS, 1 TD
- Jeff Wilson Jr.Rushing5 CAR, 26 YDS
- Tyreek HillReceiving7 REC, 130 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q40:00Jason Sanders 52 Yd Field Goal17–20
- Q44:22Jason Sanders 37 Yd Field Goal17–17
- Q32:08Tyreek Hill 80 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Jason Sanders Kick)17–14
- Q20:00Cam Little 53 Yd Field Goal17–7
- Q21:04De'Von Achane 1 Yd Run (Jason Sanders Kick)14–7
- Q26:21Brian Thomas Jr. 14 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)14–0
- Q14:31Travis Etienne Jr. 1 Yd Run (Cam Little Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:31Travis Etienne Jr. 1 Yd Run (Cam Little Kick)JAX 7 – 0 MIA · JAX 41% → 60% +19JAX 41% → 60%+19 pts
- Q21:04De'Von Achane 1 Yd Run (Jason Sanders Kick)JAX 14 – 7 MIA · MIA 15% → 33% +18MIA 15% → 33%+18 pts
- Q32:08Tyreek Hill 80 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Jason Sanders Kick)JAX 17 – 14 MIA · MIA 15% → 41% +26MIA 15% → 41%+26 pts
- Q44:22Jason Sanders 37 Yd Field GoalJAX 17 – 17 MIA · MIA 26% → 53% +26MIA 26% → 53%+26 pts
- Q40:00Jason Sanders 52 Yd Field GoalJAX 17 – 20 MIA · MIA 54% → 100% +46MIA 54% → 100%+46 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dolphins 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -3
- MIA 61%
- Fair odds
- MIA -149
- JAX +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- JAX 21.7 – 24.5 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | JAX | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +4 | — | JAX: Trevor Lawrence · MIA: Tua Tagovailoa (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +77 Elo | MIA 60.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 56.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 59.8% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| JAX | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 3222.2 | Points scored | 29.22nd of 32 |
| 17th of 3221.8 | Points allowed | 23.022nd of 32 |
| 14th of 32+0.4 | Margin | +6.25th of 32 |
| 16th of 325.18 | Yards per play | 6.482nd of 32 |
| 21st of 325.41 | Yards allowed per play | 5.1210th of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 32 |
| 6th of 324–3 | Road vs home | 7–24th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.